Hindsight bias as a function of anchor distance and anchor plausibility

Abstract

This study explored the influence of anchor distance on hindsight bias and how the subjective plausibility of different anchors moderates this relation. In addition to the standard memory design used in hindsight bias research, participants were asked to indicate the range of values for possible answers to difficult almanac questions. Varying anchor distance on the basis of each participant's individual range of possible answers showed (1) that anchor plausibility decreased with increasing anchor distance following a non-linear monotone function, (2) that size of hindsight bias initially increased with increasing anchor distance but, from a certain distance, started to decrease, and (3) that hindsight bias was found to be always higher for plausible than for implausible anchors.