US Counterinsurgency vs Iranian-Sponsored Terrorism

Abstract

Terrorist networks involve not only non-state actors but also an international environment in which state sponsors and ‘gray areas’ play significant roles. Non-state actors need the sanctuaries of state sponsors and of areas outside of effective state control to recruit, organize, and train their ranks, and to finance their activities. Through statistical analysis of statements of Iranian state intentions, and measures of direct US military interventions, this study examines how US military interventions into Iran's perceived sphere of interests deterred Iranian support for terrorist actions by its proxy groups against United States targets from 1980 to 1990.

Notes

 1. John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, The Advent of Netwar (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996).

 2. Steve Emerson, ‘A Terrorist Network in America?’, New York Times, 7 April, 1993.

 3. Jerrold M. Post, ‘Rewarding Fire with Fire: Effects of Retaliation on Terrorist Group Dynamics’, Terrorism, Vol.10 (1987), pp.23–36.

 4. Ted Gurr, ‘A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices’, American Political Science Review, Vol.62 (December 1968), pp.1122–3.

 5. Ted Gurr, ‘A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices’, American Political Science Review, Vol.62 (December 1968), pp.1115–17.

 6. Xavier Raufer, ‘Gray Areas: A New Security Threat’, Political Warfare: Intelligence, Activities, Measures and Intelligence Report, Vol.20 (Spring 1992), p.1

 7. Rohan Gunaratna, Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror (New York:Columbia University Press, 2002), pp.146–9.

 8. Several sources document the Iraqi Ba'thist–Al Qaeda connection: Laurie Mylroie, ‘Iraq and the Clinton Presidency’, Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, Vol.8, No.2 (2002), pp.10–15; Laurie Mylroie, ‘Going after Iraq’, Journal of Counterterrorism Homeland Security, Vol.8, No.4 (2002), pp.10–13; Mansoor Ijaz, ‘Saddam and the Terrorists: A Marriage (Now Ended)’, National Review, Vol.55, No.12 (30 June 2003), pp.17–18; Con Coughlin, ‘Mohammad Atta's Iraqi Conection’, London Telegraph, 15 December 2003, available at ⟨http://www.frontapgemag.com/Articles/Printable.asp?ID=11313⟩.

 9. Gunaratna, pp.30–45; US Congress, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (2001), The Global Reach of Al-Qaeda, 107th Congress, 1st session, US Senate (Washington, DC: US GPO Y 4.F 76/2:S.HRG. 107–390), p 5 et seq.

10. Sean K. Anderson, ‘Warnings versus Alarms: Terrorist Threat Analysis Applied to the Iranian State-Run Media’, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol.21 (Fall 1998), pp.277–303.

11. Federation of American Scientists Military Analysis Network, ⟨http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/ops⟩, maintained by John Pike.

12. Alex P. Schmid and Janny de Graaf, Violence As Communication: Insurgent Terrorism and the Western News Media (London and Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1982), pp.53–4.

13. Anderson, Fig.1

14. Jerrold M. Post, ‘It's Us Against Them: The Group Dynamics of Political Terrorism’, Terrorism, Vol.10, No.1 (1987), p.34.