Operational Combat Analysis of the Al Qaeda Network

Abstract

Contemporary network organizational structures have gradually developed over the last decades of the twentieth century. These new structures are challenging the traditional hierarchical structure form in a number of venues. In conflict and war, they made their potentials unequivocally known on 11 September 2001 via Al Qaeda's strategic suicide bombings against the United States. To better understand the military potentials of networks, an operational combat analysis of the Al Qaeda network was conducted. This analysis, a modification of weapons systems analysis, focused on network speed, along with offensive, defensive and combat multiplier attributes. Such analysis allows for a better understanding of the military capabilities and vulnerabilities of non-state OPFORs (opposing forces) and our own emergent counter-insurgency networks.

Acknowledgements

This work is partially derived from Robert J. Bunker, ‘Operational Advantages of Networked Organizational Structures in Future Conflict and War’, Paper presented at ‘Transnational Terrorism Panel’, Towards a New Asia, 3rd Asian Security Conference, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India, 26–29 January 2001. Published in Jasjit Singh, ed, Reshaping Asian Security, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), (New Delhi: Knowledge World, 2001), pp.250–60. The authors would like to thank Lisa Campbell and John Arquilla for their aid in identifying Al Qaeda operational examples in this work.

Notes

 1. For more on network structure and function and issues and dynamics see John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker, ‘Multilateral Counter-Insurgency Networks’, in this volume.

 2. See Howard Rheingold, Smart Mobs: The Next Social Revolution (New York: Perseus Publishing, 2002); Kevin Kelly, New Rules for the New Economy (New York: Penguin. 1998); John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, The Advent of Netwar (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996).

 3. Paul L. Williams, Al Qaeda: Brotherhood of Terror (New York: Alpha Books, 2002), pp.6–8.

 4. This four stage overview was created using information principally from Rohan Gunaratna, Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror (New York: Berkley Publishing Group; reissue edition, 2003); Williams; and various Internet news sources, such as CNN, for timeline accuracy.

 5. These basic organizational forms have been described in John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt's netwar publications.

 6. Steven Johnson, Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software (New York: Scribner, 2001).

 7. John Boyd, A Discourse on Winning and Losing (Quantico, VA: MCA Press, 1987).

 8. Reuel Marc Gerecht, ‘The Terrorists' Encyclopedia’, The Middle East Quarterly, Vol.8, No.3 (Summer 2001), available at ⟨http://www.meforum.org⟩.

 9. C.J. Chivers and David Rohde, ‘The Jihad Files: Afghan Camps Turn Out Holy War Guerrillas and Terrorists’, The New York Times, 18 March 2002.

10. Jay Tolson, ‘Cracking Al Qaeda's Code’, US News and World Report, 17 May 2004.

11. Sean J.A. Edwards, Swarming on the Battlefield: Past, Present, and Future (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2000), p.2. See also John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, Swarming & The Future of Conflict (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2000).

12. ‘Military Officials: Empty Streets, Media Point to Planned Iraq Attack’, CNN, 3 April 2004, available at ⟨http://www.cnn.com⟩.

13. Ben Venzke, Saudi Compound Bombings (SCB) – vl.4. (Alexandria, VA: IntelCenter, 2003), pp.5–6.

14. Mark Bowden, Black Hawk Down. (New York: Penguin Putnam; 2000); Patrick D. Weadon, ‘Going to War? Don't Forget the OPSEC!’, OPSEC Indicator, Vol.Z (Fall 2000).

15. ‘Al-Qaida Driving U.S. Out of Saudi Arabia: Amid Terror Threat, Ambassador Telling Americans to Get Out’, WorldNetDaily.com, 15 May 2004.

16. Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, Suicide Bombings in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Land Warfare Paper 46W (Arlington, VA: Association of the US Army, September 2004).

17. Nasra Hassan, ‘Al Qaeda's Understudy’, The Atlantic Monthly, June 2004, pp.42–3.

18. Aaron Weisburd, ‘Al Qaeda Attacks Blogosphere’, 17 October 2003, available at ⟨http://www.freerepublic.com⟩.

19. Anwar Iqbal, ‘aI-Qaida's Blueprint for Terror’, United Press International, 13 February 2004.

20. Sebastian Rotella, ‘Jihad's Unlikely Alliance’, Los Angeles Times, 23 May 2004, pp.A1, A18–A19.

21. ‘U.S. Suspects Terrorism in Navy Ship Blast’, CNN, 12 October 2000, available at ⟨http://www.cnn.com⟩.

22. Hassan.

23. Hassan, p.42.

24. Michelle Delio, ‘Al Qaeda Website Refuses to Die’, Wired News, 7 April 2003, p.1, available at ⟨http://www.wired.com⟩.

25. Michelle Delio, ‘Al Qaeda Website Refuses to Die’, Wired News, 7 April 2003, pp.1–2.

26. Iqbal.

27. UK/BM-1 Translation of Military Studies in the Jihad Against the Tyrants. See Fifth Lesson: Means of Communication and Transportation. Posted 7 December 2001 at ⟨http://www.usdoj.gov/ag/trainingmannual.htm⟩.

28. Vladis E. Krebs, ‘Mapping Networks of Terrorist Cells’, Connections, Vol.24, No.3 (2002), pp.31–34.

29. Gunaratna, p.xxxv.

30. Kevin Kelly, New Rules for the New Economy (New York: Penguin Books, 1999), p.25.

31. Hassan; Rotella.

32. Rotella.

33. Brian Michael Jenkins, Countering Al Qaeda. MR-1620-RC (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2002), p.4.

34. ‘A Unique Opportunity to Establish the Khilafat’, ⟨http://www.ummah.net/action/km/candidates.html; and ‘Warnings from Islam's “Messianic Whirlpool”: Jihadists in Global Frenzy over Coming of Prophesied “Mahdi”, WorldNetDaily.com, 29 March 2004.

35. John P. Sullivan, ‘Third Generation Street Gangs: Turf, Cartels and Netwarriors’, Transnational Organized Crime, Vol.3, No.2 (Autumn 1997), pp.95–108.

36. The Internet represents the postmodern equivalent of the printed book and provides the basis for transnational network structures to achieve collective vision.

37. Gunaratna, p.xxv.

38. William H. McRaven, SpecOps: Case Studies in Special Operational Warfare Theory and Practice (Novato, CA: Presidio Press, 1995).

39. Preliminary research into network organizational forms and their operational advantages and disadvantages has been conducted. Robert J. Bunker, presentation on ‘Networked OPFORs: Strategic and Operational Considerations’, Project O'Bannon, Event 4: Terrorist Networks: An Analysis, Marine Corps Warfighting Lab, Quantico, VA, 22–23 May2002.