The New Global Security Landscape: The Road Ahead

Abstract

If one could look through the familiar artificial political lines and colors of a current world map into the twenty-first century strategic reality, one could see a complex new security arena. A deeper look into that picture would provide magical snapshots that show several types of ambiguous and asymmetric conflicts, and state failure – and their causes and consequences. Then, with some additional adjustments of focus, one can discern a number of issues that cannot be shown in two-dimensional space. They are briefly discussed as follows. First and importantly, one can get a better idea of the complex threat situation and the ultimate threat – state failure. Second, an even deeper examination of the vision of contemporary wars reveals the shadows of things that have been and of those that will be on the road ahead. Third, a closer look at the familiar and troubling world map exposes some signposts on the road ahead that indicate the most significant changes in the landscape. Finally, our magical microscope reveals a short list of the basic challenges and tasks that can help discerning civilian and military leaders negotiate the road through the new global security environment.

Acknowledgements

The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense or the US Government.

Notes

 1. Russell F. Weigley, ’The Evolution of Strategic Thought’, in B. Thomas Trent and James E. Harf (eds), National Security Affairs: Theoretical Perspectives and Contemporary Issues (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 1982), pp. 69–71.

 2. This point is noted in Jessica Mathews, ’Power Shift’, Foreign Affairs January/February 1997, pp.58–60.

 3. Amos A. Jordan, William J. Taylor, Jr and Lawrence J. Korb, American National Security: Policy and Process, 3d ed. (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988), p.3.

 4. A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement (Washington, DC: The White House, February 1966); A National Security Strategy for a New Century (Washington, DC: The White House, May 1997); A National Security Strategy for a New Century (Washington, DC: The, White House, October 1999); and annual editions to date.

 5. Robert David Steele, The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public & Political (Oakton, VA: OSS International Press, 2002), which draws on ‘World Conflict and Human Rights Map’ prepared by Berto Jongman with the support of the Goals for Americans Foundation, St Louis (2002); The State of the World Atlas (1997); and website for Genocide Watch.com (Dr Greg Stanton), among other sources.

 6. William J. Olson, ‘International Organized Crime: The Silent Threat to Sovereignty’, The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Summer/Fall 1997, pp.66–80; and Roy Godson and William J. Olson, ‘International Organized Crime’, Society, January/February 1995, pp. 18–29.

 7. Robert D. Kaplan, ‘The Coming Anarchy’, Atlantic Monthly, February 1994, pp.72–6; idem, The Coming Anarchy (New York: Random House, 2000), pp.3–57.

 8. Leslie H. Gelb, ‘Quelling the Teacup Wars’, Foreign Affairs, November/December 1994, pp.5–6.

 9. Daniel C. Esty et al., ‘The State Failure Projects: Early Warning Research for U.S. Foreign Policy Planning’, in John L. Davies and Ted Robert Gurr (eds), Preventive Measures: Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning Systems (New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998), pp.27–38. See also Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999), pp. 133–68.

10. William Shawcross, Deliver Us from Evil: Warlords, Peacekeepers, and a World of Endless Conflict (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000). Also see John Mackinlay, ‘Beyond the Logjam: A Doctrine for Complex Emergencies’, in Max Manwaring and John T. Fishel (eds), Toward Responsibility in the New World Disorder: Challenges and Lessons of Peace Operations (London: Frank Cass, 1998), pp. 120–22; and John Mackinlay, ‘War Lords’, Defense and International Security (April 1998), pp.24–32.

11. Edwin G. Corr and Max G. Manwaring, ‘Some Final Thoughts’, in Max G. Manwaring and Anthony James (eds), Beyond Declaring Victory and Coming Home (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2000), pp.248–52.

12. Edwin G. Corr and Max G. Manwaring, ‘Some Final Thoughts’, in Max G. Manwaring and Anthony James (eds), Beyond Declaring Victory and Coming Home (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2000), pp.248–52; Homer-Dixon.

13. Robert H. Dorff, ‘Strategy, Grand Strategy, and the Search for Strategy’, in Max G. Manwaring, Edwin G. Corr and Robert H. Dorff (eds), The Search for Security: A U.S. Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First Century (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2003), pp. 131–7.

14. John le Carré, The Constant Gardener (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 2001), p. 137.

15. See Max Manwaring, ‘U.S. Too Narrowly Focused on Drug War in Colombia’, The Miami Herald, 15 August 2001.

16. Dorff. Also see David C. Jordan, Drug Politics: Dirty Money and Democracies (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1999); Ana Maria Bejarano and Eduardo Pizarro, ‘The Crisis of Democracy in Colombia: From “Restricted” Democracy to “Besieged” Democracy’, unpublished manuscript, 2001. Also see: Eduardo Pizarro and Ana Maria Bejarano, ‘Colombia: A Failing State?’, Re Vista: Harvard Review of Latin America, Spring 2003, pp. 1–6.

17. Dorff. Also see David C. Jordan, Drug Politics: Dirty Money and Democracies (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1999); Ana Maria Bejarano and Eduardo Pizarro, ‘The Crisis of Democracy in Colombia: From “Restricted” Democracy to “Besieged” Democracy’, unpublished manuscript, 2001. Also see: Eduardo Pizarro and Ana Maria Bejarano, ‘Colombia: A Failing State?’, Re Vista: Harvard Review of Latin America, Spring 2003, pp. 1–6; Esty et al.

18. Dorff. Also see David C. Jordan, Drug Politics: Dirty Money and Democracies (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1999); Ana Maria Bejarano and Eduardo Pizarro, ‘The Crisis of Democracy in Colombia: From “Restricted” Democracy to “Besieged” Democracy’, unpublished manuscript, Also see: Eduardo Pizarro and Ana Maria Bejarano, ‘Colombia: A Failing State?’, Re Vista: Harvard Review of Latin America, Spring 2003, pp. 1–6.

19. For a good discussion of this approach, see Robert S. Chase, Emily B. Hill and Paul Kennedy, ‘Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy’, Foreign Affairs, January/February 1996, pp.33–51.

20. Braden R. Allenby, ‘Environmental Security: Concept and Implementation’, International Political Science Review (2000), pp.6–7.

21. Braden R. Allenby, ‘Environmental Security: Concept and Implementation’, International Political Science Review (2000), pp.6–7.

22. Author interview with General Charles E. Wilhelm, USMC (Ret.), former Commander-in-Chief, US Southern Command, USMC, 9 February 2001, in Reston, VA.

23. This phrase was used to good effect by Ian Beckett, ‘Forward to the Past: Insurgency in Our Midst’, Harvard International Review, Summer 2001, p.63.

24. Carl von Clausewitz, On War, ed. Michael Howard and trans. Peter Paret (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), pp.92–3.

25. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, Unrestricted Warfare (Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, 1999), p.2. The term, ‘cocktail mixture’ is first used on p.48 and elaborated in more detail on pp. 116–23.

26. The terms, ‘first, second, and third wave war’ were popularized by Alvin and Heidi Toffler, War and Anti-War: Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century (New York: Little, Brown and Company, 1993).

27. The terms, ‘first, second, and third wave war’ were popularized by Alvin and Heidi Toffler, War and Anti-War: Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century (New York: Little, Brown and Company, 1993), pp.33–37. Also see Michael Howard, The Lessons of History (New Haven: CT: Yale University Press, 1991).

28. Sun Tzu, The Art of War, trans. Samuel B. Griffith (London: Oxford University Press, 1963), p.122.

29. B.H. Liddell-Hart, Strategy, 2nd rev. ed. (New York: Signet, 1974), p.333.

30. Liang and Xiangsui, p.48.

31. Steven Metz and Douglas V. Johnson II, Asymmetry and U.S. Military Strategy: Definition, Background, and Strategic Concepts (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2001), pp.5–6.

32. Ralph Peters, ‘Constant Conflict’, Parameters, Summer 1997, p.10. See also ‘The Culture of Future Conflict’, Parameters, Winter 1995–96, pp. 18–27.

33. Simon Strong, Shining Path: A Case Study in Ideological Terrorism, No.260 (London: Research Institute for the Study of Conflict and Terrorism, 1993), pp. 1–2, 23–6; Max G. Manwaring, ‘Peru's Sendero Luminoso: The Shining Path Beckons’, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, September 1995, pp. 157–66; idem, ‘Guerrillas, Narcotics, and Terrorism: Old Menaces in a New World’, in Richard L. Millett and Michael Gold-Biss (eds), Beyond Praetorianism: The Latin American Military in Transition (Coral Gables, FL: North–South Center Press, 1996), pp.37–57.

34. Robert J. Bunker, ‘Battlespace Dynamics, Information Warfare to Netwar, and Bond-Relationship Targeting’, in Robert J. Bunker (ed.), Non-State Threats and Future War (London: Frank Cass, 2003), pp.97–107.

35. Liang and Xiangsui, pp.6, 17.

36. Walter Laquer, ‘Post-Modern Terrorism’, Foreign Affairs, September/October 1996, p.36; idem, The New Terrorism (Oxford: Oxford University Press), 1999.

37. Liang and Xiangsui, p.109.

38. Liang and Xiangsui, p.123.

39. Author interviews with General John R. Galvin, USA (Ret.), Boston, MA, 6 August 1997; Lieutenant General William G. Carter, III, USA (Ret.), Washington, DC, 30 November 1998 and 2 March 1999; General Anthony Zinni, USMC, Commander-in-Chief, United States Central Command, Washington, DC, 2 June 1999 and 6 October 2000; and General Charles E. Wilhelm. These observations were also made by former Secretary of State George P. Shultz in an address before the Low-intensity Warfare Conference at the National Defense University on 15 January 1986, in Washington, DC.

40. Author interviews with General John R. Galvin, USA (Ret.), Boston, MA, 6 August 1997; Lieutenant General William G. Carter, III, USA (Ret.), Washington, DC, 30 November 1998 and 2 March 1999; General Anthony Zinni, USMC, Commander-in-Chief, United States Central Command, Washington, DC, 2 June 1999 and 6 October 2000; and General Charles E. Wilhelm. These observations were also made by former Secretary of State George P. Shultz in an address before the Low-intensity Warfare Conference at the National Defense University on 15 January 1986, in Washington, DC. Also see Boutros Boutros-Ghali, ‘Global Leadership After the Cold War’, Foreign Affairs, March/April 1996, pp.86–98; idem, An Agenda for Peace (New York: United Nations, 1992), pp.11, 32–4.

41. Clausewitz.

42. General Vo Nguyen Giap, ‘The Factors of Success’, in People's War, People's Army (New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1962), pp. 36–7. Also see David K. Shipler, ‘Robert McNamara Meets the Enemy’, New York Times Magazine, 10 August 1997, p.50.

43. For an elaboration of this idea, see David Last, ‘Winning the Savage Wars of Peace: What the Manwaring Paradigm Tells Us’, in John T. Fishel (ed.), The Savage Wars of Peace (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1998), pp.211–39.

44. For excellent discussions regarding this topic, see Colin S. Gray, ‘Deterrence and the Nature of Strategy,’ in Max Manwaring (ed.), Deterrence in the 21st Century (London: Frank Cass, 2000), pp. 17–26; Colin S. Gray, Defining and Achieving Decisive Victory (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2002); Colin S. Gray, Modern Strategy (London: Oxford University Press, 1999).

45. Clausewitz, p.89.

46. Bunker, pp.104–107.

47. Liang and Xiangsui.

48. US Department of Defense, Transformation Planning Guidance (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 2003).

49. General Sir Frank Kitson, Warfare as a Whole (London: Faber and Faber, 1987).

50. Mathews.

51. Esty et al.

52. Kitson.

53. Giap; Shipler.

54. Liang and Xiangsui.