Authoritarian Diffusion, or the Geopolitics of Self-Interest? Evidence from Russia’s Patron–Client Relations with Eurasia’s De Facto States

Abstract

It is claimed that authoritarian regimes actively export their political systems. An alternative explanation maintains that authoritarian states are primarily concerned with geopolitical interests. Both explanations can produce coherent narratives. This article adjudicates among them by looking at Russia’s relations with Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In all three unrecognised states Moscow could dictate the outcome of elections but has, increasingly, abstained from interference. These client states are utterly dependent on Russia’s patronage and with its geopolitical interests ensured, Russia appears willing to grant them wide latitude.

Notes

1 For an introduction to the phenomenon of de facto states see Pegg (1998), Kolstø (2006), Caspersen and Stansfield (2011), and Caspersen (2012). For studies focusing more narrowly on post-Soviet de facto states, see Broers (2015) and Smolnik (2016).

2 The ‘May Revolution’ in Abkhazia removed President Alexander Ankvab from office in 2014.

3 The quotation within the quotation is from V. Silitski (2010).

4 ‘For Opposition Leader, the Survival of Pridnestrovie is more Important than who has the Top Job’, Tiraspol Times, 9 December 2006. See also Kolstø and Blakkisrud (2012, p. 202).

5 ‘Raul Khajimba: S Rossiei nam komfortno’, Apsny Press, 29 July 2014, available at: http://www.apsnypress.info/news/raul-khadzhimba-c-rossiey-nam-komfortno-/, accessed 20 July 2020.

6 ‘Alla Jioeva’, Lenta.ru, available at: https://lenta.ru/lib/14214994/, accessed 19 July 2020.

7 ‘Alla Jioeva’, Lenta.ru, available at: https://lenta.ru/lib/14214994/, accessed 19 July 2020.

8 Author’s interview with Valerii Litskai, former Foreign Minister of Transnistria, Tiraspol, 7 July 2016; ‘Lider Pridnestrov’ya poteryal doverie Moskvy’, NTV, 14 October 2011, available at: http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/242002/, accessed 21 July 2020.

9 ‘Syna Igoria Smirnova khotyat doprosit’ prinuditel’no’, BBC, 28 November 2011, available at: http://www.bbc.com/russian/russia/2011/11/111128_transdnestria_smirnov_son.shtml, accessed 20 July 2020.

10 ‘Pridnestrov'e: Smirnov vybyl iz bor'by’, Interfax, 16 December 2011, available at: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/222336, accessed 20 July 2020.

11 ‘Skol’ko stoit kreslo prezidenta?’, Pervyi pridnestrovskii, 8 December 2016, available at: https://ok.ru/video/211725387256, accessed 20 July 2020.

12 ‘Moskva ne podderzhivaet ni odnogo iz kandidatov v Prezidenty PMR’, Pervyi pridnestrovskii kanal, 24 November 2016, available at: https://tv.pgtrk.ru/news/20161124/51049, accessed 20 July 2020.

13 My research cannot say anything about Russian attempts to interfere in elections in other, Western states.

14 ‘Parliament in Georgia’s Breakaway Abkhazia calls on Separatist Leader to Resign’, RFE/RL Georgian Service, 9 January 2020, available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/protesters-in-georgia-s-breakaway-abkhazia-storm-presidential-administration-building/30368433.html, accessed 19 July 2020.

15 Bzhania had been slated to be the opposition candidate also in the September 2019 elections, but was unable to run as he had been poisoned shortly before the elections, whether or not this was by accident or caused by political opponents is uncertain.

16 American political scientist Samuel Huntington famously argued that in order to introduce a stable democracy in an authoritarian state it is enough that the regime organises free and fair elections and steps down voluntarily when they lose. Only when the new powerholders also organise free and fair elections and cede power to a new party will democracy be consolidated (Huntington 1993).

17 See, for example, Terzyan (2018).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Pål Kolstø

Pål Kolstø, Professor of Russian and Post-Soviet Studies, Department of Literature, Area Studies and European Languages, University of Oslo, Box 1003 Blindern, N-0315 Oslo, Norway. Email: [email protected]