Explaining Russia’s Inertia in the Azerbaijan–Armenia Dispute: Reward and Punishment in an Asymmetric Alliance

Abstract

Russia has been conventionally portrayed in the area studies literature as a close ally of Armenia, although the latter is a subordinate rather than an equal partner. More recent scholarship has focused on Armenia’s dilemma as to whether to align itself with the liberal West or to enhance ties with its former patron. The Armenian foreign policy establishment has demonstrated in political action and discourse a marked preference for Europe’s institutions and political vision. Russia’s neutrality in the recent escalation of tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan, despite bilateral security arrangements with Armenia, showed the inherent fragilities of this asymmetric alliance. Drawing on asymmetric alliance literature, this article seeks to explain Russia’s reluctance to involve itself in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute in favour of Armenia and identifies how Russia rewards or punishes its ally, based on its assessment of whether the ‘side payments’ attached to the alliance have been honoured.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 For the review and the application of the first wave of research on alliance theory see also Đidić and Kösebalaban (2019, pp. 124–25).

2 For a specific emphasis on democracy see Risse-Kappen (1996).

3 See also Snyder (1997, pp. 153–54).

4 More than 200 bilateral agreements have been concluded between Russia and Armenia in a number of fields since 1992; see Minassian (2008, p. 10).

5 ‘The Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Legal Status of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Located on the Territory of the Republic Armenia’, 21 August 1992, available at: https://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-430/48796?_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_advancedSearch=false&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_fromPage=search&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_andOperator=1, accessed 1 September 2021.

6 Preamble, ‘The Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Legal Status of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Located on the Territory of the Republic Armenia’, 21 August 1992, available at: https://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-430/48796?_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_advancedSearch=false&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_fromPage=search&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_andOperator=1, accessed 1 September 2021.

7 Article 3, ‘The Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Legal Status of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Located on the Territory of the Republic Armenia’, 21 August 1992, available at: https://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-430/48796?_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_advancedSearch=false&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_fromPage=search&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_andOperator=1, accessed 1 September 2021.

8 Article 4, ‘The Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Legal Status of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Located on the Territory of the Republic Armenia’, 21 August 1992, available at: https://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-430/48796?_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_advancedSearch=false&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_fromPage=search&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_andOperator=1, accessed 1 September 2021.

9 Article 6, ‘The Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Legal Status of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Located on the Territory of the Republic Armenia’, 21 August 1992, available at: https://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-430/48796?_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_advancedSearch=false&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_fromPage=search&_storageviewer_WAR_storageviewerportlet_andOperator=1, accessed 1 September 2021.

10 ‘The Treaty between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Russian Military Base on the Territory of the Republic of Armenia’, 16 March 1995, available at: https://uic.am/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/paym-razmabaza-1995-rus.pdf, accessed 1 September 2021.

11 Article 8, ‘The Treaty between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Russian Military Base on the Territory of the Republic of Armenia’, 16 March 1995, available at: https://uic.am/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/paym-razmabaza-1995-rus.pdf, accessed 1 September 2021.

12 ‘Protocol No. 4 Between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on Amending the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on the Russian Military Base on the Territory of the Republic of Armenia’, 16 March 1995, available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/901882115, accessed 1 September 2021; ‘The Treaty of Friendship Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia’, 29 August 1997, ratified 9 February 1998, available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/8306454, accessed 1 September 2021.

13 Article 4, ‘The Treaty of Friendship Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia’, 29 August 1997, ratified 9 February 1998, available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/8306454, accessed 1 September 2021.

14 Article 5, ‘The Treaty of Friendship Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia’, 29 August 1997, ratified 9 February 1998, available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/8306454, accessed 1 September 2021.

15 ‘Protocol No. 5 between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on Amending the Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia concerning the Russian Military Base in the Republic of Armenia’, 16 March 1995, signed 20 August 2010, available at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/902237605, accessed 1 September 2021.

16 ‘Ratification of Protocol No. 5 between Russia and Armenia’, 27 June 2011, available at: http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/11754/print, accessed 20 December 2020.

17 ‘The Collective Security Treaty, dated May 15, 1992 (as amended by the Protocol on amendments to the Collective Security Treaty of May 15, 1992, signed on December 10, 2010)’, available at: https://en.odkb-csto.org/documents/documents/dogovor_o_kollektivnoy_bezopasnosti/; http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1900489, accessed 20 December 2020. In May 1992, Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed the Treaty; Azerbaijan, Belarus and Georgia also joined the Treaty in 1993 which entered into force in 1994 with nine members. However, three members, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Georgia, withdrew in 1999 by refraining from renewal.

18 Article 1, ‘The Collective Security Treaty, dated May 15, 1992 (as amended by the Protocol on amendments to the Collective Security Treaty of May 15, 1992, signed on December 10, 2010)’, available at: https://en.odkb-csto.org/documents/documents/dogovor_o_kollektivnoy_bezopasnosti/; http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1900489, accessed 20 December 2020.

19 Article 4, ‘The Collective Security Treaty, dated May 15, 1992 (as amended by the Protocol on amendments to the Collective Security Treaty of May 15, 1992, signed on December 10, 2010)’, available at: https://en.odkb-csto.org/documents/documents/dogovor_o_kollektivnoy_bezopasnosti/; http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1900489, accessed 20 December 2020.

20 For details see, ‘Vopros vyzhivaniya: 25 let nazad Rossiya sozdala voennuyu bazu v Armenii’, Gazeta.ru, 16 March 2020, available at: https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2020/03/15/13005949.shtml, accessed 10 December 2020.

21 For the Caspian energy conundrum see Kubicek (2013).

22 For an emphasis on similar points with regards to Moscow–Yerevan relations, see Yavuz and Huseynov (2020, p. 106).

23 For Karabakh descent political elites after Ter-Petrosyan, see Yavuz and Huseynov (2020, p. 105).

24 ‘Serzh Sargsyan: “Armenia to Coordinate its Foreign Policy with Russia”’, Foreign Policy News, 10 April 2015, available at: https://foreignpolicynews.org/2015/04/10/serzh-sargsyan-armenia-to-coordinate-its-foreign-policy-with-russia/, accessed 3 December 2020.

25 There is a rich body of literature on complementarism/complementarity, a concept proposed by Levon Ter-Petrosyan. See Giragosian (2017, p. 4). For other studies emphasising complementarism/complementarity see Weinstein (2004), Minasyan (2013b, p. 3; 2017, pp. 135–36), Socor (2013b).

26 ‘Artsakh is Armenia and there is no Alternative. Nikol Pashinyan’, Arthsak Press, 5 August 2019, available at: https://artsakhpress.am/eng/news/111361/artsakh-is-armenia-and-there-is-no-alternative-nikol-pashinyan.html, accessed 3 December 2020.

27 For deviant case analysis see Molnar (1967) and Seawright (2016).

28 In broad strokes, the Madrid principles envisioned: (i) a plebiscite to ascertain the status of Nagorno-Karabakh; (ii) the protection of civil and economic rights of inhabitants of the disputed territories; (iii) the return of the occupied territories; (iv) the establishment of a corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh; (v) the return of displaced refugees; and (vi) several regulations concerning methods, mechanism and organisation of the peace process. For more details see, ‘Madrid Principles: Full Text’, ANI Armenian Research Center, 11 April 2016, available at: https://www.aniarc.am/2016/04/11/madrid-principles-full-text/, accessed 21 March 2021.

29 For protests see Cookman (2020).

30 ‘Rossiya podtverzhdaet podderzhku bratskomu armyanskomu narodu: energetika, transport, bor’ba s koronavirusom i gumanitarnaya pomoshch’ Artsakhu’, Novosti-Armeniya, 21 November 2020, available at: https://newsarmenia.am/news/armenia/rossiya-podtverzhdaet-podderzhku-bratskomu-armyanskomu-narodu-energetika-transport-borba-s-koronavir/, accessed 22 December 2020.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Cenap Çakmak

Cenap Çakmak, Department of International Relations, Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Turkey. Email: [email protected]

M. Cüneyt Özşahin

M. Cüneyt Özşahin, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Necmettin Erbakan University, Konya, Turkey. Email: [email protected]