The Geopolitical Role of the Three Seas Initiative: Mackinder’s ‘Middle Tier’ Strategy Redux

Abstract

The Three Seas Initiative (TSI) is a forum of Baltic, Black and Adriatic sea countries. In 1919, pioneering British geopolitical theorist Halford J. Mackinder promoted a ‘Middle Tier’ strategy, that paralleled the Polish interwar ‘Intermarium’ project. Today, the United States views the TSI as an asset in the ‘New Europe’, while pro-Atlanticist Central and Eastern European states see it as a tool to build transatlantic connections. This article suggests that the TSI revives Mackinder’s ‘Middle Tier’ strategy. Similar to how the Franco–British bonds with the ‘Middle Tier’ states sought to offset Germany and Russia a century ago, today stronger ties between the US and the ‘New Europe’ within the TSI strengthen the position of NATO vis-à-vis the EU, rebalance Western EU actors and counter Russian interests.

Disclosure statement:

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Referring to the powerful Jagiellonian dynasty of the Middle Ages, the Jagiellonian concept envisaged Poland as an Eastern European power.

2 ‘President Says Three Seas Will Protect Against Russian Energy “Blackmail”’, First News, 6 June 2022, available at: https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/president-says-three-seas-will-protect-against-russian-energy-blackmail-30847, accessed 15 June 2022.

3 ‘President Says Three Seas Will Protect Against Russian Energy “Blackmail”’, First News, 6 June 2022, available at: https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/president-says-three-seas-will-protect-against-russian-energy-blackmail-30847, accessed 15 June 2022.

4 ‘There is No Three Seas Initiative without Free Ukraine: Polish PM’, Radio Poland, 6 June 2022, available at: https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/Artykul/2974106,%E2%80%98There-is-no-Three-Seas-Initiative-without-free-Ukraine%E2%80%99-Polish-PM, accessed 15 June 2022.

5 ‘Admit Ukraine to Three Seas Initiative Today, Say European Parliaments’, Latvian Public Broadcasting, 29 March 2022, available at: https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/saeima/admit-ukraine-to-three-seas-initiative-today-say-european-parliaments.a450072/, accessed 15 June 2022.

6 ‘Finland to Join the Three Seas Initiative (3SI)’, Intermarium, 11 December 2019, available at: https://intermarium.org.ua/en/finland-to-join-the-three-seas-initiative-3si/, accessed 6 February 2022.

7 ‘US Interim National Security Strategic Guidance’, The White House, March 2021, available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf, accessed 17 June 2022.

8 ‘Remarks by President Trump to the People of Poland’, Trump White House Archives, 6 July 2017, available at: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-people-poland/, accessed 16 February 2022.

9 ‘President Donald J. Trump on the 2018 Three Seas Initiative’, US Embassy in Romania, 17 September 2018, available at: https://ro.usembassy.gov/president-donald-j-trump-on-the-2018-three-seas-initiative/, accessed 14 February 2022.

10 ‘US Delegation to the Three Seas Initiative’, US Embassy in Slovenia, 18 June 2019, available at: https://si.usembassy.gov/u-s-delegation-to-the-three-seas-initiative/, accessed 14 February 2022.

11 ‘Deputy Secretary Biegun’s Remarks at the Three Seas Initiative Virtual Ministerial’, US Embassy in Estonia, 30 June 2020, available at: https://ee.usembassy.gov/2020-07-02-6/, accessed 15 February 2022.

12 ‘US Secretary of State Antony Blinken Expressed US Support for the Three Seas Initiative’, 3 Seas Initiative, 17 February 2021, available at: https://3seas.eu/media/news/us-secretary-of-state-antony-blinken-expressed-us-support-for-the-three-seas-initiative/, accessed 16 February 2022.

13 ‘National Security Strategy of the United States of America’, US National Security Strategy, December 2017, available at: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf, accessed 18 February 2022.

14 ‘Three Seas Summit and Business Forum’, 3 Seas Initiative, 2022, available at: https://3seas.eu/?lang=en, accessed 14 June 2022.

15 ‘Joint Declaration of the Third Summit of the Three Seas Initiative’, 3 Seas Initiative Summit, 18 September 2018, available at: http://three-seas.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BUCHAREST-SUMMIT-JOINT-DECLARATION.pdf, accessed 3 February 2022.

16 ‘Joint Declaration of the Fourth Summit of the Three Seas Initiative’, 3 Seas Initiative Summit, 6 June 2019, available at: https://www.three.si/joint-declaration, accessed 2 February 2022.

17 ‘Joint Statement’, 3 Seas Initiative Summit, 19 October 2020, available at: https://media.voog.com/0000/0046/4166/files/FINAL%20Three%20Seas%20Joint%20Statement.pdf, accessed 4 February 2022.

18 ‘Finland to Join the Three Seas Initiative (3SI)’, Intermarium, 11 December 2019, available at: https://intermarium.org.ua/en/finland-to-join-the-three-seas-initiative-3si/, accessed 6 February 2022.

Additional information

Funding

The article has been developed in the frame of the project ‘Promoting Order at the Edge of Turbulence (POET)’ that is conducted in the Center for International Studies and Development (CISAD) at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow (Poland). The project is co-financed by the Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange under the NAWA Guest Professorship programme and the Polish National Agency for Academic Exchange within the NAWA Chair programme. The author wishes to acknowledge the financial assistance of the NAWA Grant (PPN/PRO/2020/1/00003/DEC/1) from the Polish Academic Exchange Council and NCN grant (ZARZADZENIE NCN 94/2020) from the Polish National Science Council.

Notes on contributors

Paolo Pizzolo

Paolo Pizzolo, Assistant Professor of International Relations, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland. Email: [email protected]; [email protected]