It’s so hot: predicting climate change effects on urban tourists’ time–space experience

Abstract

Progressive changes in mean annual temperatures are arguably the strongest evidence of ongoing climate change. In destinations with a Mediterranean climate, in contrast to the colder months, during summer, rising air temperatures are believed to inhibit tourist movements and activities, and consequently affect tourists’ evaluation of and satisfaction with their experiences. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has investigated the potential impact of climate change on tourists’ time–space activity using actual behavioural tracking-based information. Data collected via GPS technology and a post-visit survey of tourists (n = 404) visiting Lisbon during the summer were analysed via structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). The results report empirical evidence of the present impact of (summer) weather on urban tourists’ time–space activity and on their intra-destination experience evaluation. Specifically, maximum air temperature is found to have a significant negative effect on overall satisfaction, while the meteorological conditions of the entire day reveal a significant impact on tourists’ activities and movements. The results are particularly useful for the sustainable adaptive management of urban attractions and destinations that are especially vulnerable to climate change, as well as in managing its adverse impact on tourists’ experiences.

Keywords:

• Climate change
• weather conditions
• time–space activity
• tourist movements
• tourist experience
• tourist perceptions

Disclosure statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of this article.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Ana Maria Caldeira

Ana Maria Caldeira is an invited Assistant Professor of Tourism at the University of Aveiro (UA; in Portugal) and researcher at the Governance, Competitiveness and Public Policy (GOVCOPP) research unit at this University. She holds a degree in International Relations (ISCSP – University of Lisbon), a Master and a PhD in Tourism (University of Aveiro). Her research interests are attractions and visitor management, tourist spatial behaviour, urban tourism and consumer behaviour in tourism.

Elisabeth Kastenholz

Elisabeth Kastenholz is an Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Management, Industrial Engineering and Tourism at the University of Aveiro, where she teaches Tourism and Marketing-related subjects since 1994, also integrating the University’s Research Unit GOVCOPP (Governance, Competitiveness and Pubic Policies) and serving as Coordinator of Tourism Studies. She holds a PhD degree in Tourism Studies, an MBA, a degree in “Tourism Management and Planning” and a bachelor in “Public Administration – Specificity Foreign Affairs”. She was coordinated three research projects and participated in several others. Her current research interests lie in sustainable tourism destination marketing, the “overall destination experience”, consumer behaviour in tourism, accessible tourism, rural tourism (and related topics like food & wine and nature-based tourism).