Abstract
National parks in Canada operate under the dual mandate of conservation and visitor use, which involves balancing ecological integrity and nature-based tourism activities. Climate-induced environmental change may increase the existing tension between conservation and visitor use as major tourism resources located in protected areas (PAs) are projected to undergo large-scale changes. This study draws upon the behavioural approach, scenario planning, and landscape visualizations to examine the relationship between climate change impacts, visitor perceptions, and visitor experience management at the Athabasca Glacier in Jasper National Park, Canada. Four tourism development scenarios defined by two management drivers (ecological integrity and visitor demand) with corresponding storylines and visualizations were developed for 2050. The visualized scenarios were presented to visitors (n = 304) in a survey to understand potential implications on visitor satisfaction. The results suggest that park managers need to find a balance between ecological integrity and visitor use in a way that ensures commercialized tourism development is limited, educational material is prioritized, and ecological integrity is maintained. While understanding the behaviour of future tourists is complex, it is a critical component of climate change adaptation planning and decision-making processes that needs to be prioritized by policymakers and PAs managers.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to acknowledge Sarah Brown and Rebecca Hasdell for their contributions to the project.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Additional information
Funding
Notes on contributors
Melissa Weber
Melissa Weber is a PhD student at the University of Ottawa in the Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics.
Mark Groulx
Mark Groulx is an Assistant Professor in the University of Northern British Columbia’s School of Environmental Planning.
Christopher J. Lemieux
Christopher Lemieux is an Assistant Professor at Wilfrid Laurier University in Geography and Environmental Studies.
Daniel Scott
Daniel Scott is a professor at the University of Waterloo in the Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University Research Chair in Climate and Society and Executive Director, Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change (IC3).
Jackie Dawson
Jackie Dawson is an Associate Professor at the University of Ottawa in the Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics and Canada Research Chair in Environment, Society and Policy.