Pathway to zero emissions in global tourism: opportunities, challenges, and implications

Abstract

Human emissions must reach zero by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. Most sectors have achieved a downward path for their greenhouse gas emissions, but tourism’s emissions have continued to grow. We explore scenarios to reduce global tourism emissions and find only a narrow pathway to zero emissions tourism that could lead to net zero by 2050 while not severely damaging the tourism economy. Our study uses a system dynamics model. We describe the business-as-usual scenario, including its consequences for emissions and for tourism’s share of the remaining global carbon budgets if the world is to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 °C. We explore 45 possible policy approaches, like taxes and subsidies, infrastructure investments, off-sets, technology, behavioural changes, and sustainable aviation fuels. Key measures appear to be a mandate for e-fuel mixing up to 100% by 2050, and a multi-trillion USD investment in hydrogen-powered electric aircraft and high-speed rail infrastructure. We find that a limited renewable energy supply will constrain the growth of aviation if it is to be zero emissions in 2050. A risk-analysis explores the robustness of the policies. Finally, we discuss the consequences of the zero emissions tourism (ZET) scenario we propose.

Keywords:

• Climate change
• zero emissions scenario
• risk analysis
• aviation
• climate justice

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and recommendations, which helped us greatly improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Marianne Copeland for her most helpful proofreading of the draft text.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

The project for developing the scenarios was partly funded by the author’s universities and through the project “Envisioning 2030” by a coalition of the Travel Foundation (UK), the Centre of Expertise Leisure, Tourism & Hospitality (The Netherlands), and the Netherlands Board of Tourism & Conventions.

Notes on contributors

Paul Peeters

 Paul Peeters is a Professor at the Centre for Sustainability, Tourism and Transport (CSTT) of Breda University of Applied Sciences, the Netherlands. His publications cover a wide range of topics including climate scenario’s, system dynamic approaches to tourism research and modelling, air transport, tourism transport mode choice, and modal shift, policy making, tourism climate mitigation and adaptation policies, and transport technological developments.

Bernadett Papp

Bernadett Papp works as a researcher at the European Tourism Futures Institute, Bernadett focuses mostly on urban tourism development and related challenges. She is active in the field of scenario planning and strategic foresight. She teaches at bachelor and master levels at NHL Stenden University in the Netherlands. In the past years, Bernadett worked with various multilateral organisations. She is currently a PhD candidate at the University of Glasgow, Scotland, and a member of the United Nations World Tourism Organization’s QUEST Advisory Board.