http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1829-8741
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ABSTRACT
When do states forge technological change in mature industries? This article challenges the emphasis on bureaucratic autonomy in explaining the ability of governments to promote technological change. We show that structural features of the bureaucracy alone are insufficient to account for variation in policy intervention, and argue that sectoral patterns of interest intermediation shape state capacity. Political coordination leads industry and government to broker technological transformations in consensus-driven negotiations. This prioritizes the interests of incumbent firms, likely resulting in regulatory capture and weak policy intervention. Political competition among interest groups and state agencies, by contrast, allows policy-makers to organize coalitions of technology challengers, likely leading to strong policy intervention. We examine this argument in the case of electric vehicle policy in Germany and the United States. Germany failed to disrupt its auto sector to transition to electric vehicles, while the United States adopted comprehensive policies for the manufacturing and commercialization of electric cars against incumbent opposition. Counter to conventional wisdom, our findings suggest that states can effectively engage in sectoral intervention to drive technological change in the absence of autonomous bureaucracies.
Acknowledgments
The authors contributed equally. We are grateful for comments from the anonymous reviewers and for feedback from Chris Ansell, Llewelyn Hughes, David Konisky, Tobias Schulze-Cleven, Eric Thun and John Zysman. We would like to thank the discussants and participants of panels at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association, the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics and the Industry Studies Association. We thank Daniel Willis for research assistance and the ClimateWorks Foundation for financial support.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1. The term electric car, here, refers to battery EVs, which only have a battery-powered electric engine. Hybrid vehicles, instead, combine an internal combustion engine with a battery-powered electric engine.
2. Others have distinguished between corporatism as an interest group structure and concertation as a policy-making progress involving the state and outside interests (Baccaro, Citation2003; Ornston & Schulze-Cleven, Citation2015).
3. We use horizontal coordination here to refer to coordination among firms across the entire domestic sector. As Whitley (Citation1999) has shown in the case of Japan, industries can exhibit strong horizontal coordination within industry groups, but weak horizontal coordination across groups. We expect that such group-based coordination prevents united industry opposition, and therefore takes on some of the characteristics of low horizontal coordination as discussed in this article.
4. See https://www.selectusa.gov/automotive-industry-united-states, http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/22/news/economy/volkswagen-germany-cars-economy/
5. Compiled from OECD STAN Database (2017).
6. Interview with official, Federal Ministry for Environment (14 March 2016).
7. Interviews with official, federal ministry (24 February 2016), representative of NPE (15April 2016).
8. Interviews with official, federal ministry (22 January 2016), anonymous source (21 April 2016), and former Deputy Director, Ministry of Transport (13 June 2016).
9. Interviews with official, federal ministry (22 January 2016), Henry Kuhle, Senior Manager, VDA (23 March 2016), representative of NPE (April 15, 2016), and former Deputy Director, Ministry of Transport (21 April 2016).
10. Interviews with Henry Kuhle, Senior Manager, VDA (23 March 2016) and representative of trade association (11 April 2016).
11. Interviews with Viviane von Raddatz, World Wildlife Fund (19 January 2016), and senior manager of German carmaker (14 June 2016).
12. Interviews with official, federal ministry (January 22, 2016), Marcus Weller, German Federation for Motor Trades and Repairs (2 February 2016), and official, federal ministry (24 February 2016).
13. Interviews with representative, Federal Ministry for the Environment (14 March 2016), anonymous source (21 April 2016), former Deputy Director, Federal Ministry for Transport (13 June 2016), and senior executive of auto supplier (4 July 2016).
14. Interview with former Deputy Director, Federal Ministry for Transport (13 June 2016).
15. Interviews with Henry Kuhle, Senior Manager, VDA (23 March 2016).
16. Interview with representative, major trade association (11 April 2016).
17. Interview with representative, NPE (15 April 2016).
18. Interview with senior executive, auto supplier (4 July 2016).
19. Interview with former Deputy Director, Federal Ministry for Transport (13 June 2016).
20. Interview with Viviane von Raddatz, World Wildlife Fund (19 January 2016).
21. Interview with anonymous industry source (27 June 2016).
22. Interview with Henry Kuhle, Senior Manager, VDA (23 March 2016).
23. Interviews with expert at major environmental group (6 January 2016) and Henry Kuhle, Senior Manager, VDA (23 March 2016).
24. Interviews with official, federal ministry (24 February 2016), senior manager at German carmaker (14 June 2016), anonymous industry source (7 July 2016), and senior executive of auto supplier (4 July 2016).
25. Interviews with senior officials, Department of Energy (29 September and 15 November 2016).
26. Interview with Jared Brown, Policy Advisor for Senator Orrin Hatch (8 September 2016).
28. Interview with senior legislative staffer (6 September 2016).
29. Why did GM develop an electric car? See Tillemann, 2015.
30. Interview with Jared Brown, Policy Advisor for Senator Orrin Hatch (8 September 2016).
31. Interview with anonymous industry source (29 August 2016).
32. In January 2009, Michigan passed legislation that provided financial incentives related to battery manufacturing.
33. Sander Levin (Michigan) was conferee of stimulus package and very in tune with auto industry.
34. Interview with Jared Brown, Policy Advisor for Senator Orrin Hatch (9 September 2016).
35. Interview with Robbie Diamond, CEO, Securing America's Future Energy and Electrification Coalition (9 September 2016).
37. Interview with senior EPA official (21 October 2016).
38. Interview with Jim Marston, Environmental Defense Fund (11 October 2016).
Additional information
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Notes on contributors
Jonas Meckling
Jonas Meckling is assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, where he leads the Energy and Environment Policy Lab. His research focuses on the politics of climate and clean energy policy.
Jonas Nahm
Jonas Nahm is assistant professor of energy, resources, and environment at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where his research focuses on clean energy transitions in China, Germany, and the United States.