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Research Article

Iran’s Look East Policy Under Ebrahim Raisi: Tracing the Rise of a Middle Power

Published online: 20 Jun 2024
 

Abstract

This article adopts a systemic-impact understanding of middle power as an analytical framework to provide a nuanced understanding of Look East Policy under the Raisi administration. It analyses three aspects of Raisi administration’s policy in the regional context of (Eur)Asia: (1) embrace of ‘Asian multilateralism’ (2) ideational strategy drawing on Iran’s identity as a civilizational State and a civilizational conception of Asia (3) projection of Iran as a ‘bridge’ connecting transcontinental connectivity initiatives by China, Russia and India. It concludes that Iran is driven by twin objectives of establishing itself as an independent regional power, while helping shape a post-Western, multilateral economic and security order in (Eur)Asia.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. Jahangir Karami, ‘Iran and Russia: Past Experiences and Future Prospects’, Journal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies, 2 (1), 2019, pp. 1–21.

2. Ibid, p. 14; Nicole Grajevski, ‘Russia and Iran in Greater Eurasia’, NUS-Middle East Institute, 14 July 2020 at https://mei.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Insight-239-Nicole-Grajewski.pdf (Accessed 12 October 2023).

3. Edmund Herzig, ‘Regionalism, Iran and Central Asia’, International Affairs 80 (3), 2004, p.507; Elaheh Koolaee and Mandana Tisheyar, ‘The New Regionalism between Iran and Russia in Eurasia’, Discourse: An Iranian Quarterly, 11 (1–2), 2013–2014, pp. 49–66.

4. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, ‘Asianisation of Asia: Chinese-Iranian Relations in Perspective’, Asian Affairs, 53 (1), 2022, p. 20.

5. R.K. Ramazani, ‘Iran’s Foreign Policy: Contending Orientations’, Middle East Journal 43 (2), 1989, p. 204.

6. Ibid.

7. Hamidreza Azizi, ‘Iran’s ‘Look East’ Strategy: Continuity and Change Under Raisi’, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, 14 September 2023 at https://mecouncil.org/publication/irans-look-east-strategy-continuity-and-change-under-raisi/ (Accessed 22 January 2024).

8. Stephen Blank, ‘The Emerging Russo-Iranian Entente’, The Jamestown Foundation, 19 December 2022 at https://jamestown.org/program/the-emerging-russo-iranian-entente/ (Accessed 6 October 2023); Mercy A. Kuo, ‘The China-Iran-Russia Triangle: Alternative World Order?’, The Diplomat, 7 July 2022, at https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/the-china-iran-russia-triangle-alternative-world-order/ (Accessed 20 September 2023); R.P. Rajgopalan, ‘What’s in the growing Russia-China-Iran trilateral convergence?’, The Diplomat, 23, 2019 at https://thediplomat.com/2019/12/whats-in-the-growing-russia-china-iran-trilateral-convergence/ (Accessed 20 September 2023).

9. Vali Kaleji, ‘What Iran’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization Membership Really Means’, The National Interest, 28 November 2021 at https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-iran%E2%80%99s-shanghai-cooperation-organization-membership-really-means-197047 (Accessed 6 October 2023)

10. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, no. 4, p. 10.

11. Andrew Carr, ‘Is Australia a Middle Power? A Systemic Impact Approach’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 68 (1), 2014, pp. 77–78.

12. Paul Evans, ‘Middle Powerism in the 21st Century: Mission Impossible?’, Global Asia, March 2016 at https://www.globalasia.org/v11no1/cover/middle-powerism-in-the-21%3Csup%3Est%3C-sup%3E-century-mission-impossible_paul-evans (Accessed 28 September 2023).

13. Eduard Jordaan, ‘The Emerging Middle Power Concept: Time to Say Goodbye?’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 2017, p. 5.

14. Robert W. Cox, ‘Middlepowership, Japan and future world order’, International Journal, 44, 1989, p. 824.

15. Eduard Jordaan, ‘The Concept of a Middle Power in International Relations: Distinguishing Between Emerging and Traditional Middle Powers’, Politikon: South African Journal of Political Studies, 30 (1), 2003, p. 167.

16. Andrew Carr, no. 11, p. 76.

17. Mark Beeson and Richard Higgott, ‘The Changing Architecture of Politics in the Asia-Pacific’, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 14(2), 2014, pp. 215–237.

18. Ibid., p. 223.

19. Ibid., p. 222.

20. Eduard Jordaan, no. 13.

21. Charalampos Efstathopoulos, ‘Global IR and the Middle Power Concept: Exploring Different Paths to Agency’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 77 (2), 2013, pp. 217–218.

22. Ibid., p. 216.

23. Eduard Jordaan, no. 13, p. 11.

24. Eduard Jordaan, no. 13, p. 2.

25. Andrew Carr, no. 11 p. 81.

26. Ibid., p. 77.

27. Ibid., p. 79–80.

28. Ibid., p. 79.

29. Colin Flint and Cuiping Zhu, ‘The Geopolitics of Connectivity, Cooperation and Hegemonic Competition: The Belt and Road Initiative’, Geoforum, 99, 2019, pp. 95–101.

30. Edmund Herzig, no. 3, p. 510.

31. Shahram Akbarzadeh, ‘Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Ideology and Realpolitik in Iranian Foreign Policy’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 69 (1), 2015, pp. 88–103.

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33. Jingdong Yuan, ‘Forging a New Security Order in Eurasia: China, the SCO.

and the Impacts on Regional Governance’, Chinese Political Science Review, 8, 2023, pp. 422–439; Shahram Akbarzadeh, no. 31, p. 91.

34. Shahram Akbarzadeh, no. 31, p. 98.

35. ‘State of play of EU-Iran relations and the future of the JCPOA’, Directorate-General for External Policies- European Parliament, October 2022 at https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2020/603515/EXPO_IDA(2020)603515_EN.pdf (Accessed 22 February 2024).

36. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, no. 4, p. 22.

37. ‘President Raisi addressing 21st SCO Summit’, Islamic Republic of Iran Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 17 September 2021 at https://en.mfa.ir/portal/NewsView/652104/President-Raisi-addressing-21st-SCO-SummitSCO-can-turn-into-a-driving-force-for-global-multilateralism (Accessed 15 October 2023).

38. Alexander Cooley, ‘A Post-American Central Asia’, Foreign Affairs, August 23, 2021 at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-08-23/post-american-central-asia (Accessed 12 October 2023).

39. Vali Kaleji, no. 9.

40. Masoud Hamyani, ‘Iran and SCO: Embracing a Eurasian Identity Part 1’, Institute for Political and International Studies, 23 January 2022 at https://www.ipis.ir/en/newsview/667349/iran-and-sco-embracing-a-eurasian-identity-part-1 (Accessed 10 October 2023).

41. Jiandong Yuan, ‘Forging a New Security Order in Eurasia: China, the SCO, and the Impacts on Regional Governance’, Chinese Political Science Review, 8, 2023, p. 432–433.

42. ‘Iranian President Calls On SCO to Confront US Unilateralism’, Tasnim News Agency, 16 September 2022 at https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2022/09/16/2775178/iranian-president-calls-on-sco-to-confront-us-unilateralism (Accessed 12 October 2023).

43. Emmers Ralph, ‘The Role of Middle Powers in Asian Multilateralism’, Asia Policy, 13(1), 2018, pp. 42–47; Sarah Teo, “Middle Powers Amid Sino-U.S. Rivalry: Assessing the ‘Good Regional Citizenship’ of Australia and Indonesia”, The Pacific Review 35 (6), 2022, pp. 1135–1161.

44. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, ‘SCO: An opportunity to bolster Eurasian convergence’, CGTN, 16 September 2022 at https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-09-16/SCO-An-opportunity-to-bolster-Eurasian-convergence-1dmTvERt2GA/index.html (Accessed 12 October 2023).

45. “Iran’s SCO membership will have historical benefits: Raisi”, Islamic Republic News Agency, 4 July 2023 at https://en.irna.ir/news/85159797/Iran-s-membership-in-SCO-will-have-historical-benefits-Raisi (Accessed 28 September 2023).

46. Sohrab Azad, “China’s Stake in the Afghan Peace Process”, The Diplomat, 22 September 2020 at https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/chinas-stake-in-the-afghan-peace-process/ (Accessed 3 October 2023).

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49. Ayjaz Wani, “Regional Multilateral Consultations on Afghanistan” Observer Research Foundation, 17 February, 2023, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/regional-multilateral-consultations-on-afghanistan (Accessed 15 February 2024)

50. “Delhi Declaration on Afghanistan”, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, 10 November 2021 at https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/34491/Delhi_Declaration_on_Afghanistan (Accessed 13 October, 2023)

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54. Eldar Mamedov, ‘How Iran views the Nagorno-Karabakh truce’, Eurasianet¸ 13 November 2020 at https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-how-iran-views-the-nagorno-karabakh-truce (Accessed 27 February 2024).

55. Vali Kaleji, “Iran and the 3 + 3 Regional Cooperation Format in the South Caucasus: Strengths and Weaknesses”, The Jamestown Foundation, 16 June 2021 at https://jamestown.org/program/iran-and-the-33-regional-cooperation-format-in-the-south-caucasus-strengths-and-weaknesses/ (Accessed 12 September 2023).

56. Vali Kaleji, “Tensions Deescalate Between Iran and Republic of Azerbaijan” The Jamestown Foundation, 2 February, 2022 at https://jamestown.org/program/tensions-deescalate-between-iran-and-republic-of-azerbaijan/ (Accessed 15 October 2023)

57. “In less than 48 hours, troops, equipment transferred to drill field in northwest Iran”, Tehran Times, 3 October 2021 at https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/465724/In-less-than-48-hours-troops-equipment-transferred-to-drill (Accessed 5 October 2023).

58. “The Good of the Region Lies in Having Independent, National Armed Forces and Cooperation Between Neighbouring Countries”, 3 October 2021 at https://english.khamenei.ir/news/8711/The-good-of-the-region-lies-in-having-independent-national-armed (Accessed 13 October 2023).

59. Vali Kaleji, ‘Russia and Iran Diverge in the South Caucasus’, The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 15 June 2023 at https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13758-russia-and-iran-diverge-in-the-south-caucasus.html (Accessed 10 February 2024).

60. “Armenia Hosts First Trilateral Meeting with Iranian and Indian Officials”, Tehran Times, 23 April 2023 at https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/483916/Armenia-hosts-first-trilateral-meeting-with-Iranian-and-Indian (Accessed 11 July 2023).

61. Vali Kaleji, ‘New Trilateral Cooperation for Iran, Armenia and India in the South Caucasus: From ‘Soft Balancing’ to Regional Transit Balance’, The Jamestown Foundation, 21 June 2022 at https://jamestown.org/program/new-trilateral-cooperation-for-iran-armenia-and-india-in-the-south-caucasus-from-soft-balancing-to-regional-transit-balance/ (Accessed 11 February 2024).

62. Amitabh Acharya, “The Myth of the ‘Civilization State’: Rising Powers and the Cultural Challenge to World Order”, Ethics and International Affairs 34 (2), 2020, pp. 139–156; Nora F. Onar, ‘Historical Legacies In Rising Powers: Toward a (Eur)Asian Approach’, Critical Asian Studies, 45 (3), 2013, pp. 411–430.

63. Deepika Saraswat, Between Survival and Status: The Counter-Hegemonic Geopolitics of Iran, Macmillan Education and ICWA, New Delhi, 2022, p. 75.

64. Fabio Petito, ‘The Global Political Discourse of Dialogue Among Civilizations: Mohammad Khatami and Vaclav Havel’, Global Change, Peace & Security, 19 (2), 2007, pp. 103–126.

65. “The ‘Second Phase of the Revolution’ Statement addressed to the Iranian nation”, 11 February 2019 at https://english.khamenei.ir/news/6415/The-Second-Phase-of-the-Revolution-Statement-addressed-to-the (Accessed 25 September 2023).

66. “The chain leading to an Islamic Civilization”, 10 April, 2021 at https://english.khamenei.ir/news/8443/The-chain-leading-to-an-Islamic-civilization (Accessed 15 February 2024)

67. ‘Raisi: West’s Concern Regarding Islamic Revolution was Formation of Rival Civilization’, 1 October, 2022 at https://nournews.ir/En/News/152121/Raisi-West’s-concern-regarding-Islamic-Revolution-was-formation-of-rival-civilization (Accessed 15 February 2024)

68. Mohammadbagher Forugh, “Iran as a ‘Civilizational Crossroads’ in the Belt and Road Geography”, in Florian Schneider (ed.), Global Perspectives on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, 2021, pp. 301–302, p. 299.

69. Ibid, p. 305.

70. Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, “Old friends the best partners for bright future/Iran, China friends in difficult situations”, 13 February 2023 at https://president.ir/en/142404 (Accessed 26 September 2023).

71. ‘India—Iran Joint Statement—’Civilisational Connect, Contemporary Context’ During the Visit of Prime Minister to Iran’, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, 23 May 2016 at https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/26843/India__Iran_Joint_Statement_quot_Civilisational_Connect_Contemporary_Contextquot_during_the_visit_of_Prime_Minister_to_Iran (Accessed 13 October 2023).

72. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, no. 4, p. 16.

73. Mandana Tisheyar, “Neo-regionalism and Culture-based Security Policy between Iran and Eurasian Muslim Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of the Political Studies of Islamic World, 8 (31), 2019, pp. 43–54.

74. Masoud Hamyani, “Iran and SCO: Embracing a Eurasian Identity Part 2”, Institute for Political and International Studies, 25 January 2022 at https://www.ipis.ir/en/subjectview/667642/iran-and-sco-embracing-a-eurasian-identity-part-2 (Accessed 27 February 2024).

75. ‘Iran’s SCO membership will have historical benefits: Raisi’, no. 45.

76. “Dr Raisi at the 23rd SCO Summit”, 7 May 2023 at https://president.ir/en/145189 (Accessed 11 January 2024); Curtis Chin, “Xi Jinping’s ‘Asia for Asians’ Mantra Evokes Imperial Japan”, South China Morning Post, 14 July 2014 at https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1553414/xi-jinpings-asia-asians-mantra-evokes-imperial-japan (Accessed 15 February2024).

77. David C. McCaughrin, “What Does China’s ‘New Asian Security Concept’ Mean for the US?”, The Diplomat, 21 January 2017 at https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/what-does-chinas-new-asian-security-concept-mean-for-the-us/ (Accessed 27 September 2023).

78. James D. Sidaway and Chin Yuan Woon, ‘Chinese Narratives on ‘One Belt, One Road’ (一带一路) in Geopolitical and Imperial Contexts’, The Professional Geographers, 2017, pp. 2–3.

79. Mohsen Shariatinia and Hamidreza Azizi, “Iran and the Belt and Road Initiative: Amid Hope and Fear”, Journal of Contemporary China, 28 (120), 2019, pp. 984–994.

80. Ibid.

81. Masoud Hamyani, no. 40.

82. Mohsen Shariatinia and Hamidreza Azizi, “Iran—China Cooperation in the Silk Road Economic Belt: From Strategic Understanding to Operational Understanding”, China & World Economy, 25 (5), 2017, pp. 46–61.

83. Mohsen Shariatinia and Hamidreza Azizi, no.79, p. 990.

84. Philip Reid, ‘Mahan and Mackinder: Addressing the False Dichotomy in the Eurasian Pivot theory’, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Occasional Paper No. 59, 2 June 2022 at https://www.idsa.in/system/files/opaper/op-59-mahan-and-mackinder_0.pdf (Accessed 20 July, 2023)

85. ‘Agreement on the Establishment of an International Transport and Transit Corridor among the Governments of the Republic of India, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and Islamic Republic of Iran’, Ministry of External Affairs at https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/016P2941.pdf (Accessed 12 September 2023).

86. Alexander Lukin, “Russian—Chinese Cooperation in Central Asia and the idea of Greater Eurasia” India Quarterly, 75 (1), 2019, pp. 1–14.

87. Vali Kaleji, “Iran and Russia Cooperation in the Construction of Rasht-Astara: The Only Remaining Railway of the International North—South Transport Corridor (INSTC)”, Valdai Club, 3 March2023 at https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/iran-and-russia-cooperation-in-the-construction/ (Accessed 22 February 2024).

88. “Iran Begins Pilot Transfer of Goods via North-South Corridor”, Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, 12 June 2022 at https://en.otaghiranonline.ir/news/33789 (Accessed 13 September, 2023)

89. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, no.44.

90. ‘President Raisi addressing 21st SCO Summit’, no.37.

91. Szczepan Lemańczyk, “The Transiranian Railway—History, Context and Consequences”, Middle Eastern Studies, 49 (2), 2013, p. 239.

92. Hamidreza Azizi, ‘Iran’s Multi-Faceted Strategy in Deir ez-Zor’, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, March 2020 at https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/19134.pdf (Accessed 13 October 2023).

93. Deepika Saraswat, ‘Iran’s Central Asia Policy Gains Momentum amid Russia—Ukraine War’, Issue Brief, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, 19 July 2022 at https://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/iran-central-asia-policy-gains-momentum-dsaraswat-190722 (Accessed 13 October 2023).

94. “1st Kazakhstan-Turkey Transit Train Arrives in Iran”, Tehran Times, 19 June 2022 at https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/473795/1st-Kazakhstan-Turkey-transit-train-arrives-in-Iran (Accessed 13 October 2023).

95. “Transit through ‘Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey’ Corridor Launched”, Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 19 June 2022 at https://irangov.ir/detail/389590 (Accessed 22 September 2023).

96. Anirban Bhaumik, ‘Iran Goes to Pakistan with Chabahar Link Plan’, Deccan Herald, 28 May 2019 at https://www.deccanherald.com/national/iran-goes-to-pakistan-with-chabahar-link-plan-736492.html (Accessed 19 October 2023).

97. Masoud Hamyani, no.74.

98. “President Raisi addressing 21st SCO Summit”, no. 37.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Deepika Saraswat

Deepika Saraswat is an Associate Fellow in the West Asia Centre at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

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