Analysis of voting percentage in the Mayor election of Taipei by Multinomial Logit Model

Abstract

The researchers in social sciences always use the method of multinomial logit model to the election of public issues. The multinomial logit model was utilized to establish a predicted model for the voting percentage. A poll was conducted three panel surveys prior to the election of mayor of Taipei in December 1998, in this paper, we analyze the information of this election. In addition, we also introduce an alternative predicted method. Throughout the empirical study, we have sufficient evidences to show that the modified method results in better performance than the usual predicted method.

Keywords:

• Multinomial logit model
• panel survey
• voting percentage