Traffic safety prediction model for identifying spatial degrees of exposure to the risk of road accidents based on fuzzy logic approach

Abstract

This article, we propose a traffic accident prediction system based on fuzzy logic which allows to identify ‘the degree of exposure to road accidents’ risk’ and to analyse the level of complexity of the factors involved. We focus our study on the possible influence of a series of local criteria observed and selected for each kilometre per segment of the road network studied. The study was conducted on a road network within the rural area of the Wilaya of Mascara in the north-western region of Algeria. A Geographic Information System was integrated into the analysis process to enable a spatial visualization of the degrees of exposure to road accidents’ risk, providing a cartographically measurable solution to establish and attenuate accident risk. Results show that the developed system can be effectively applied as an useful Road Safety tool capable of identifying risk factors related to the characteristics of the road.

Keywords:

• exposure degree
• road safety
• rural area
• fuzzy logic
• GIS
• Algeria

Acknowledegment

The authors wish to thank the direction of cooperation and inter-university exchanges of the Algerian Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. We also gratefully acknowledge the contributions by Dr Djamel Eddine Chaouch and Eng. Noureddine Derkaoui. The efforts of the field technicians are also very much appreciated. The authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for their numerous constructive remarks.