Spatial-temporal analysis for identification of dengue risk area in Melaka Tengah district

Abstract

Data on annual cumulative DF cases in Melaka Tengah from 2013 to 2016 was used to determine the distribution pattern of DF cases. The spatial distribution was examined using average nearest neighbour (ANN) techniques and kernel density estimation (KDE) to detect the hotspot areas. The spatial distribution of dengue incidence within Melaka Tengah area showed that the spatial pattern of DF cases was dispersed at multiple distances. Also, this study simulated DF hotspot model by extrapolating the pattern of dengue activity in the previous interepidemic period. It was found that the DF epidemic in Melaka Tengah was spread throughout study area during the end of the years between July and December, and the wide spatial distribution was conserved during the peak of the epidemic in September. Overall, this analysis demonstrated spatial clustering of DF activity which can facilitate prediction of the magnitude, timing, and location of future DF epidemic.

Keywords:

• Dengue
• spatial analysis
• GIS
• epidemiology

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This study was supported by Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (600-RMI/FRGS 5/3 (77/2015).