A deep-learning model for national scale modelling and mapping of sea level rise in Malaysia: the past, present, and future

Abstract

In this study, we conducted a holistic evaluation of current and future trend in coastal sea level at the 21 stations along Malaysia’s coastline. For sea level prediction, univariate and 3 scenarios of multivariate Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks were trained with absolute sea level data and ocean-atmospheric variables. The result from the four scenario predictive models revealed that multivariate LSTM neural network trained with combined ocean-atmospheric variables performed best for modelling sea level variation, giving a mean RMSE and R accuracy of 0.060 and 0.861, respectively. The national sea level rise estimated from the average of sea level trend at all stations is 3.72 mm/yr for relative sea level and 3.68 mm/yr for absolute sea level. The 2050 and 2100 projections indicate that sea level will continue to rise but at a very slow rate with no acceleration.

Keywords:

• Vertical land movement
• sea level
• LSTM neural networks
• ocean-atmospheric variables

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).