Spatial patterns of environmental degradation and demographic changes in the Mediterranean fringes

Abstract

Environmental and climatic factors contribute to the range of causes of increased socioecological conflicts, especially in the transcontinental transition areas. However, knowledge of the precise extent and patterns of environmental change driving social and migratory mutations in these areas is still quite limited. This article shows that the Mediterranean transition fringe will undergo climatic-environmental degradation except from four scattered areas of abundance which are likely to be more affected by human activity by 2050. Through an integral socioecological approach, it was found that long droughts are likely to alternate with sporadic intense storms with an impact on the loss of biodiversity, degradation of biocultural heritage, and reduction of ecosystem services. Forced migration trends towards areas of abundance have been identified according to particularly stressful divergent flows at European borders (Turkey and Morocco). The need for increased international cooperation and cross-cultural exchange is foreseen to identify and address common challenges.

Graphical Abstract

Keywords:

• Migration
• climate
• environment
• change
• Google Earth Engine

Code availability

Codes are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Data availability

All the datasets that support the findings of this study are open access. The Land use/Land cover dataset is available from ESRI at https://livingatlas.arcgis.com/landcover/. The WorldPop Global Project Population Data is available from University of Southampton at https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/WorldPop_GP_100m_pop. The Gridded Population of World Version 4 (GPWv4), Revision 11 is available from NASA at https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/CIESIN_GPWv411_GPW_Population_Count. The MOD13Q1.006 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day is available from NASA at https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/MODIS_006_MOD13Q1. The MYD13A1.006 Aqua Vegetation Indices 16-Day is available from NASA at https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/MODIS_006_MYD13A1. The MOD11A2.006 Terra Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity 8-Day is available from NASA at https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/MODIS_006_MOD11A2. The CHIRPS Daily: Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (Version 2.0 Final) is available from the University of California, Santa Barbara at https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/UCSB-CHG_CHIRPS_DAILY. The NEX-GDDP: NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections is available from NASA at https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/NASA_NEX-GDDP. The MOD16A2.006 Terra Net Evapotranspiration 8-Day is available from NASA at https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/MODIS_006_MOD16A2. The Global Migration Data is available from the International Organization of Migration at www.migrationdataportal.org. The Anna Lindh Intercultural Trends data are available from the Anna Lindh Foundation at https://www.annalindhfoundation.org.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Centre for Scientific and Technical Research (CNRST, Morocco) [contracts number PPR/11/2015 and IK/2018/48] and by the Erasmus+ program of the European Union [project number: 598826-EPP-1-2018-1-ES-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP].