Climate change on potential suitable areas for typical Pinaceae species on the Western Sichuan Plateau

Abstract

There is a significant impact of climate change on species distribution and vegetation patterns in high mountain regions, which is a major topic of research in biogeography. It has recently warmed up on the Western Sichuan Plateau, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Based on the MaxEnt model, we were able to predict distributions based on current and future climate conditions, and determine the trend of distribution change and the underlying climate factors. Under current climate conditions, the two typical tree species display distinct spatial distributions. Furthermore, under future climate conditions, distribution ranges of both typical tree species will shrink and move to the northern part of the plateau. The variation in temperature between seasons and years affected the distribution of two tree species. This study provided a scientific basis for understanding how high mountain and plateau forests respond to climate change.

Keywords:

• Climate change
• Pinaceae species
• distribution dynamics
• Niche model
• Western Sichuan Plateau

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Yingdan Yuan: Conception and design of the research, Drafting the manuscript, Revision of manuscript for important intellectual content. Jiajia Zuo: Acquisition of data, Analysis and interpretation of data, Drafting the manuscript, Revision of manuscript for important intellectual content. Hanyue Zhang and Xinggang Tang: Acquisition of data. Mengting Zu: Statistical analysis. Yingdan Yuan: Conception and design of the research.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.