Dynamics of human presence and flood-exposure risk in close proximity to Bangladesh’s river network: an evaluation with multitemporal satellite imagery

Abstract

Assessing human presence in close proximity to river network is crucial for frequently flood-affected populous countries, like Bangladesh, to reliably estimate flood-exposure risk. Using multitemporal satellite nighttime light (NTL) as a proxy for human presence, we examined the spatial distribution and change in NTL luminosity (+11,225.69 km² areas) across Bangladesh during 2000–2018 at national and river network scales. Results showed a rising trend and emerging hotspots of nightlights and increased near-river population (+1.5 million) under flood-exposure risk. These patterns were coincident with the dwindling of forests (−91.89%), grasslands (−6.02%) and barren lands (−27.92%) and increased built-up (11.06%) areas. Positive correlations were found between annual NTL luminosity and LandScan population (r = 0.48) and annual population (%) access to electricity (r = 0.82), revealing the effect of rural electrification. Our analytical approach and results provide a basis for timely monitoring of floodplain occupancy and flood-exposure risk at scale in the rapidly developing regions globally.

Keywords:

• Floodplain occupancy
• flood-exposure risk
• LandScan
• nighttime lights
• LULC
• emerging hot spot analysis

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to A.M.