AGIS model of the effects of global climate change on mammals

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the use of Geographic Information Systems to evaluate the effect of global climate change on mammals. Two general circulation models were used to predict climate change in Texas as a result of increased atmospheric CO₂ and the Holdridge model of climate‐vegetation association was used to predict distributions of plant communities under current and increased levels of CO₂ .Habitat specificities of the four species of Insectivora and the four species of Lagomorpha in Texas were used to predict impact of global climate change on their geographic distribution and, hence, on species richness within these two orders. The warmer climate in Texas predicted from climate models resulted in tropical vegetation moving into the state from the south. GIS models predicted that geographic ranges of these mammals would shrink, although none would be extirpated, and that mammalian richness would decrease (i.e., area of the state containing a high number of species would decrease, whereas area containing a lower number of species would increase). Model results were robust to predictions of different climate models, but sensitive to assumptions about habitat specificities of mammals. While a small subset of the mammalian fauna of Texas was used for this demonstration, we are using GIS to assess the impact of climate change on more speciose groups (bats, rodents).

Notes

Present address: Prince William Sound Science Center, P.O. Box 705, Cordova, Alaska 99574, U.S.A.