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ABSTRACT
Over the last two decades, South Africa has experienced isolated terrorist attacks and at times served as a hub for international terrorist activity, particularly as a conduit for illicit financial transactions and a place of transit and hiding. However, since 2015, the country has seen an increase in terrorist activity locally. Moreover, the escalating insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, led by Islamist organisation Ahlu-Sunnah Wa-Jama (ASWJ) with increasing links to Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP), further raises the threat of terrorism in South Africa by potentially inciting terrorist activity locally and increasing the regional flow of militant actors. To ensure these security challenges can be met, it is important that policymakers understand the changing nature of international terrorism, how it manifests in South Africa, the current counter-terrorism capacity of the state, and what regional strategies must be strengthened or developed to address the transnational nature of terrorist networks today.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Institute for Economics & Peace, Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism, Sydney, November 2020, http://visionofhumanity.org/reports.
2 United Nations, The United Nations Support Plan for the Sahel, May 2018, https://www.un.org/africarenewal/sites/www.un.org.africarenewal/files/English%20Summary%20Report_0.pdf.
3 This paper will predominantly focus on the threat of terrorism posed by Islamist extremist networks such as al-Qaeda, ISIS, and their affiliates. However, many of its recommendations are also applicable to combating Far-Right terrorist actors, such as the National Christian Resistance Movement, among others.
4 National Director of Public Prosecutions’ Report on the Operations of the National Prosecuting Authority in Terms of the Section 22(4)(g), Read with Section 35(2)(a), of the National Prosecuting Authority Act 32 of 1998, https://www.npa.gov.za/sites/default/files/media-releases/NPA_Annual_Report_2019-2020.pdf
5 Most recently, the United Nations Security Council Unanimously adopting resolution 2462 (2019) under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter which requires all States to prevent and suppress the financing of terrorist acts and to refrain from providing support to those involved in them.
6 UN Security Council, Security Council resolution 1373 (2001), on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts, S/RES/1373 (2001), https://www.refworld.org/docid/3c4e94552a.html
7 Ryan Shaffer, ‘The Terrorism, Ideology, and Transformations of al-Qaeda,’ Terrorism and Political Violence 27, no. 3 (2015): 581–90.
8 A proto-state is generally regarded as a political entity that does not represent a fully institutionalised or autonomous sovereign state. Lia (2015) argues that ‘jihadi proto-states’, such as the Islamic State, share at least four distinct characteristics: ‘they are intensely ideological, internationalist, territorially expansive, and irredentist.’ Over the past 25 years, jihadi insurgents have repeatedly announced the formation of ‘Islamic states’ or ‘emirates’ in several parts of the Muslim world, from Yemen to Afghanistan. Usually they have not survived for more than a year or two. See: Brynar Lia, ‘Understanding Jihadi Proto-States,’ Perspectives on Terrorism 9, no. 4 (2015).
9 Fawaz A. Gerges, ISIS: A History (United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 2017).
10 Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger, ISIS: State of Terror (New York: HarperCollins, 2016).
11 Joana Cook and Gina Vale, ‘From Daesh to ‘Diaspora’: Tracing the Women and Minors of the Islamic State’ (Major Report, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, July 2019), https://giwps.georgetown.edu/resource/from-daesh-to-diaspora/
12 Gerges, ISIS: A History.
13 United Nations Security Council, ‘ Twelfth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to international peace and security and the range of United Nations efforts in support of Member States in countering the threat,’ 29 January 2021, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3899398.
14 Peter Fabricius, ‘Is Islamic State taking charge of Mozambique’s jihadist insurgency?’ (ISS Today, Institute for Security Studies, 10 January 2020), https://issafrica.org/iss-today/is-islamic-state-taking-charge-of-mozambiques-jihadist-insurgency.
15 Cachalia and Schoeman, ‘Violent Extremism in South Africa: Assessing the current Threat.’
16 Kacper Rekawek and Viktor Szucs, ‘ Who Are the European Jihadis?’ (Project Midterm Report, Globsec, 2018), https://www.globsec.org/publications/who-are-european-jihadis-from-criminals-to-terrorists-and-back.
17 Kire Babanoski, ‘The Threats of Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters for the European Security,’ Journal of Applied Security Research 15, no. 1 (2019): 10–27.
18 Interview with South African security sector official, interview by [removed for PR].
19 Interview with South African security sector official, interview by [removed for PR].
20 Information regarding this case was collected through the reviewing of publicly available court documents as well as interviews with anonymous sources within the National Prosecuting Authority by [removed for PR].
21 The State versus Brandon-Lee Thulsie and Tony-Lee Thulsie (2018) Indictment.
22 See Simon Allison, ‘Is this the first South African fighting for the ISIS?’; Dabiq, Issue 8 (April 2015), p. 26.
23 Outlined in the supplementary affidavit made in opposition of bail for Brandon-Lee and Tony-Lee Thulsie in The State versus Brandon-Lee Thulsie and Tony-Lee Thulsie, signed 04 March 2020.
24 The State versus Brandon-Lee Thulsie and Tony-Lee Thulsie (2018) Indictment.
25 Anne Speckhard and Ahmet Yayla, ‘The ISIS Emni: The Origins and Inner Workings of ISIS’s Intelligence Apparatus,’ Perspectives on Terrorism 11 (2017).
26 Abu Sa’aeed Al-Britani, ‘Advice to Those Who Cannot Come to Sham,’ guidebook posted on Telegram.
27 News24, ‘Terrorism-Accused Thulsie Twins Back in Court after Long Delay,’ January 31, 2019, https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/terrorism-accused-thulsie-twins-head-back-to-court-after-long-delay-20190131.
28 The State versus Brandon-Lee Thulsie and Tony-Lee Thulsie (2018) Indictment.
29 Outlined in the supplementary affidavit made in opposition of bail for Brandon-Lee and Tony-Lee Thulsie in The State versus Brandon-Lee Thulsie and Tony-Lee Thulsie, signed 04 March 2020.
30 Author interview with anonymous source. 17 November 2020.
31 Christian Jokinen, ‘Islamic State’s South African Fighters in Mozambique: The Thulsie Twins Case,’ Terrorism Monitor 18, no. 20 (2020).
32 IOL, ‘Four Face Terrorism Charges,’ April 14, 2018, https://www.iol.co.za/ios/news/four-face-terrorism-charges-14440281
33 ENCA, ‘Affidavit Reveals Chilling Details of Plot to Kidnap and Kill British Couple,’ March 7, 2018, https://www.enca.com/south-africa/affidavit-reveals-chilling-details-of-plot-to-kidnap-and-kill-a-british-couple
34 News24, ‘Dutch Jihadist Suspect ‘Involved’ in South Afrca Kidnapping – Reports,’ August 27, 2018, https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/dutch-jihadist-suspect-involved-in-south-african-kidnapping-reports-20180827
35 Rebecca Davis, ‘ States Cites ISIS in Durban Trial – But Experts Urge Extreme Care,’ Daily Maverick, October 24, 2018,https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-10-24-state-cites-isis-in-durban-trial-but-experts-urge-extreme-care/.
36 Joan Swart, ‘Durban Bomb Series and the East African Connection, ‘ Islamic Theology of Counter-Terrorism, (2019), https://www.itct.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Durban-Bomb-Series-and-the-East-African-Connection.pdf.
37 News24, ’12 accused walk free as Verulam mosque bombing case struck from roll,’ July 14, 2020, https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/12-accused-walk-free-as-verulam-mosque-bombing-case-struck-from-roll-20200714.
38 Interview with South African security sector official, interview by [removed for PR].
39 Statement by H.E. Minister Naledi Pandor, Minister of International Relations and Cooperation of the Republic of South Africa, during aUN Security Council Meeting, September 25, 2019, http://www.dirco.gov.za/docs/speeches/2019/pand0925.htm.
40 South African Government, ‘Protection of Constitutional Democracy Against Terrorist and Relgated Activities Act 33 of 2004,’ https://www.gov.za/documents/protection-constitutional-democracy-against-terrorist-and-related-acitivities-act.
41 South African Government, ‘Regulation of Foreign Military Assistance Act 15 of 1998,’ https://www.gov.za/documents/regulation-foreign-military-assistance-act.
42 National Director of Public Prosecutions’ Report on the Operations of the National Prosecuting Authority in Terms of the Section 22(4)(g), Read with Section 35(2)(a), of the National Prosecuting Authority Act 32 of 1998, https://www.npa.gov.za/sites/default/files/media-releases/NPA_Annual_Report_2019-2020.pdf
43 Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, https://www.saps.gov.za/dpci/index.php
44 U.S. Department of State, ‘Country Reports on Terrorism 2019: South Africa,’ https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2019/south-africa/
45 U.S. Department of State, ‘Country Reports on Terrorism 2019: South Africa,’ https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2019/south-africa/
46 Financial Intelligence Centre Act 38 of 2001, https://www.gov.za/documents/financial-intelligence-centre-act#
47 South African Government, ‘Revenue Service Celebrates International Customs Day,’ January 2020, https://www.gov.za/speeches/international-customs-day-24-jan-2020-0000.
48 African Union, ‘Protocol to the OAU Conventionon the Preventing and Combating of Terrorism,’ 2004, https://au.int/sites/default/files/treaties/37291-treaty-0030_-_protocol_to_the_oau_convention_on_the_prevention_and_combating_of_terrorism_e.pdf.
49 Hussein Solomon, ‘Eight steps to improve counter-terrorism measures in South Africa,’ African Security Review 21, no. 1 (2012): 31–41.
50 Jytte Klausen, Rosanne Libretti, Benjamin, W.K. Hung, Anura P. Jayasumana, ‘Radicalization Trajectories: An Evidence-Based Computational Approach to Dynamic Risk Assessment of ‘Homegrown’ Jihadists,’ Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 43, no. 7 (2020): 588–615.
51 Interview with South African security sector official, interview by [removed for PR].
52 Interview with source within the intelligence community by [Held back for PR] November 18, 2020.
53 Owen Frazer and Christian Nunlist, ‘The Concept of Countering Violent Extremism,’ (CSS Analyses, No. 183, Center for Security Studies, December 2015), https://css.ethz.ch/en/publications/css-analyses-in-security-policy.html.
54 United Nations, Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism, Report of the Secretary-General, A/70/674, 24 December 2015, https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/70/674
55 World Bank, Violence Without Borders: The Internationalization of Crime and Conflict (Policy Research Report, 2020), https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/violence-without-borders
56 Reuters, ‘Militants from Mozambique Staged Deadly Attack in Tanzania, Police Say,’ October 23, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tanzania-security-mozambique-idUSKBN2781PB
57 Jan Gerbet, ‘Mozambican Insurgency Threatens South African Gas Interests – Defence Minister,’ news24, August 11, 2020, https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/mozambican-insurgency-threatens-south-african-gas-interests-defence-minister-20200811
58 Mail&Guardian, ‘The SADC will Regret its Approach to Mozambique’s Insurgency,’ July 13, 2020, https://mg.co.za/africa/2020-07-13-the-sadc-will-regret-its-approach-to-mozambiques-insurgence/
59 BusinessDay, ‘Naledi Pandor Puzzled by SADC Inertia Over Mozambique Crisis, January 21, 2021, https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2021-01-21-naledi-pandor-puzzled-by-sadc-inertia-over-mozambique-crisis/.
60 Southern African Development Community (SADC), ‘ SADC to host Extraordinary Troika Summit of the Organ,’ https://www.sadc.int/news-events/news/sadc-host-extraordinary-troika-summit-organ/.
61 Laurie Nathan. Community of Insecurity: SADC’s Struggle for Peace and Security in Southern Africa. (Ashgate Publishing: New York, 2012).
62 United Nations Security Council, ‘ Twelfth report of the Secretary-General on the Threat Posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to international peace and security and the range of United Nations efforts in support of Member States in countering the threat,’ January 29, 2021, https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3899398
63 Compiled by author with the use of Raeesah C. Cachalia and Albertus Schoeman, ‘Violent Extremism in South Africa: Assessing the current Threat’ (Southern Africa Report, Institute for Security Studies, 2017), https://issafrica.org/research/southern-africa-report/violent-extremism-in-south-africa-assessing-the-current-threat.
64 Stephen F. Burgess, ‘South Africa from the Perspective of WMD Supply Networks: Indications and Warning Implications,’ Strategic Insights 6, no. 5 (2007).
65 Mike Hough, ‘Urban terror in South Africa: A New Wave?’ Terrorism and Political Violence 12, no. 2 (2000): 67–75.
66 Eric Rosand and Jason Ipe, ‘Enhancing Counterterrorism Cooperation in Southern Africa,’ African Security Review 17, no. 2 (2008): 42–60.
67 Raeesah C. Cachalia and Albertus Schoeman, ‘Violent Extremism in South Africa: Assessing the current Threat’ (Southern Africa Report, Institute for Security Studies, 2017), https://issafrica.org/research/southern-africa-report/violent-extremism-in-south-africa-assessing-the-current-threat
68 Albertus Schoeman, ‘South Africa and terrorism: The links are real’ (ISS Today, Institute for Security Studies, 2016), https://issafrica.org/amp/iss-today/south-africa-and-terrorism-the-links-are-real.
69 Hussein Solomon, ‘Combating Islamist Radicalisation in South Africa,’ African Security Review 23, no. 1 (2013): 17–33.
70 Don Van Natta, ‘Suspected Bomb Mastermind Caught, ‘ The Sydney Morning Herald, July 22, 2005, https://www.smh.com.au/world/suspected-bomb-mastermind-caught-20050722-gdlqce.html
71 Cachalia and Schoeman, ‘Violent Extremism in South Africa: Assessing the Current Threat.’
72 BBC, ‘Henry Okah: South African Court Convicts Nigeria Rebel,’ January 21, 2013, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-21119470.
73 Reuters, ‘Four in Court for ANC Terror Plot,’ December 18, 2012, https://www.iol.co.za/news/four-in-court-for-anc-terror-plot-1442441.
74 BBC, ‘Mohammed Emwazi: Tanzanian Officer Recalls Airport Arrest,’ March 8, 2015, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31785820.
75 Cachalia and Schoeman, ‘Violent Extremism in South Africa: Assessing the current Threat.’
76 Mzilikazi Wa Afrika and Stephan Hofstatter, ‘Top Terror Bomber Bust on his Way to SA,’ Sunday Times, January 15, 2017, https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/2017-01-15-top-terror-bomber-bust-on-his-way-to-sa/.
77 Jenni Evans, ‘Crusaders Terror Plot: High Treason Charges Levelled against Man Plotting to Remove ‘Dark Rubbish,’ New 24, August 28, 2019, https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/crusaders-terror-plot-high-treason-charges-levelled-against-man-plotting-to-remove-dark-rubbish-20200828.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Stephen Buchanan-Clarke
Stephen Buchanan-Clarke is a security analyst with several years of experience working in both conflict and post-conflict settings in Africa, primarily on issues of peace and security; transitional justice and reconciliation; democratisation and governance; and preventing and countering violent extremism. He currently serves as head of the Human Security and Climate Change project at Good Governance Africa and is co-editor of the Extremisms in Africa anthology series.