FURTHER EDUCATION OR RE‐ENLISTMENT DECISION IN TURKISH ARMED FORCES: A SEEMINGLY UNRELATED PROBIT ANALYSIS

Abstract

Previous empirical studies examining the determinants of re‐enlistment probabilities have generally employed a univariate approach and have suggested that expected further education increases the likelihood of joining the army. However, the re‐enlistment and further education decisions can be interdependent. Accordingly, this study employs a seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model to jointly estimate the factors that influence both further education and re‐enlistment decisions. Empirical analysis indicates that there is a correlation between the re‐enlistment and further education decisions, revealing that previous single equation models might be misspecified. Moreover the geographical background, education level of the conscript, intention of further education and previous unemployment duration are influential in the re‐enlistment decision. Additionally, the further education decision appears to be determined by family and sibship characteristics, education level and age.

Keywords:

• Re‐enlistment
• Further education
• Turkish Armed Forces
• Seemingly unrelated probit

JEL Classifications:

• J22
• J23
• J24

Notes

¹ See Varoğlu and Bıçaksız (2003) for a review of the structure of Turkish Armed Forces.

² In order to ensure that this sampling is a valid representative of the population, the data from the surveys have been compared to the 2002 population data where male population between 20–29 years of age is grouped according the region and education level. The comparison indicates that our sampling is a valid representative of the male population in Turkey.

³ In order to investigate the differential wage effects on the re‐enlistment decision, a new variable has been created as the difference between the civilian and the military wage. Estimation results indicate that it has a statistically insignificant effect, which is close to zero.