Star Wars: Anti-Satellite Weapons and Orbital Debris

ABSTRACT

The militarization and weaponization of outer space are increasing continuously with the development of new and more advanced space weapon systems by a growing number of nations. This is a direct consequence of the high and growing strategic value of outer space for defense, security, and warfare. This paper reviews trends in space weapon systems and analyzes the implications of anti-satellite military weapons for human activities in outer space. A direct consequence of the completion of anti-satellite military tests is that the amount of orbital debris has increased significantly. We use a simple physical – economic model to illustrate how anti-satellite military tests, particularly those using direct-ascent weapons, dramatically increase the probability that the Kessler syndrome will occur. Whereas the long-run impact of low altitude anti-satellite tests is limited because of atmospheric drag, at high altitude direct-ascent anti-satellite tests are persistently harmful for human activities in space. The paper also provides a simulation of the long-run effects of a war in space.

KEYWORDS:

• Outer space
• anti-satellite weapons
• orbital debris
• war in space

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• D62
• F51
• H56

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Low Earth orbit (LEO) is the area of space at an altitude between around 100 and 2,000 km.

2. The use of the SpaceX Starlink satellite constellation by Ukraine for internet access in the war against Russia is an example the technological and operational advantages provided by civil satellites for military and defence activities. Even launch systems using a high-altitude airplane platform developed by private aerospace companies as the Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne, the Orbital Science’s Pegasus and the StratoLauch, have a direct military application.

3. Koplow (2009, 1201) pointed out that the US started working on the development of ASAT weapons only a few weeks after the launch of Sputnik I, and that presumably the Soviet Union did the same.

4. Active debris removal vehicles can use a number of alternative technologies, such as robotic arms, nets, space balloons, lasers, etc. All these devices can interfere not only with debris but with any other spacecraft and even some of these technologies are capable of destroying functional satellites.

5. For a view of the issue from the perspective of international law, see, for instance, Zedalis and Wade (1978), Kingwell (1990), Ramey (2000), Maogoto and Freeland (2007), Kuplic (2014), Ford (2017), and Taft (2017).

6. Cyber-attacks can also be considered as ASAT weapons, although they are not space-specific and share the same characteristics as cyber-attacks on Earth.

7. In outer space, because of the absence of atmosphere, nuclear radiation suffers no physical mitigation, and radiation intensity is only reduced by distance.

8. The first nuclear explosions in space were conducted by the US between August and September 1958 as part of Operation Argus, and consisted of the explosion of a 1.7 kilotonnes (kt) nuclear warhead at different altitudes between 200 and 540 km. The use of a nuclear warhead for this purpose converts the missile into an electronic weapon; the electromagnetic pulse produced from the detonation can disable satellites (the radiation damages electronic components and solar cells). The first true ASAT test (Starfish Prime) in which satellites were destroyed was conducted by the US in July 1962, and consisted of the detonation of a 1.4 megaton nuclear warhead at an altitude of about 400 km to test the effects of the electromagnetic pulse of the nuclear explosion. The effects of this test were devastating, destroying three satellites (two American and one British) and damaging another three (two American and one Soviet); in other words, the explosion destroyed or damaged about a third of all satellites in orbit at the time. The Soviet Union conducted four high-altitude nuclear tests in 1961 and 1962: in October 1961 two nuclear tests of 1.2 kt each at altitudes of 150 and 300 km, and in October 1962 two additional nuclear explosions of 200 and 300 kt, at similar altitudes (Johnston 2009).

9. Four different orbits are used by satellites: Low Earth Orbit (LEO, between 100-2,000 km) by communications and Earth observation satellites, Medium Earth Orbit (MEO, between 2,000 and 35,786 km) for navigation and positioning (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou), Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) at 35,786 km (communication/broadcast satellites), and High Earth Orbit (HEO>35,786 km). The most populated orbits are LEO and GEO.

10. A large number of tests were carried out during the period from 1962 to 1970, although information about the characteristics and results of the tests is very limited.

11. This was the ASM-135, based on the AGM-69 SRAM with an Altair upper stage. The system was carried on a modified F-15 Eagle (Grego 2012).

12. This is the tracked debris from this test using the technology of the 1980s. This technology has been improving over time, and, therefore, the estimations of debris for the different tests are not directly comparable.

13. It is known that in the 1980s the Soviet Union developed a DA-ASAT missile to be launched from an aircraft (the Kontakt launched from a modified MiG-31), like the ASM-135 of the US (Kommel and Weeden 2020).

14. Additionally, the anti-aircraft S-400 and S-500 systems have ASAT capabilities, as they have the dual purpose of surface-to-air anti-ballistic missiles and DA-ASAT weapons (with an operational range of up to 600 km).

15. At the beginning of the twenty-first century China developed the SC-19 anti-ballistic missile as an ASAT weapon, and it conducted a series of tests during the 2000s. During the 2010s, China developed a new ASAT missile, the Dong-Neng (DN-2 and DN-3), which it tested several times during the decade.

16. As a matter of fact, on 22 January 2013 a small Russian satellite (BLITS) was destroyed by debris from the Feng-Yun 1C (NASA 2013).

17. This is the case for the X-20 Dyna-Soar Project, which started in 1957, or the MOL Project of 1963 for deployment of manned battle-stations in space by the US, or the Almaz project by the Soviet Union (Pfrang and Weeden 2020c). Whereas the US cancelled both programs, the Soviet Union built and put into orbit several Almaz battle-stations (Salyut 2 failed shortly after achieving orbit, but Salyut 3 and Salyut 5 were successful), although the project was cancelled in 1978. Salyut 3, at least, was armed with an aircraft cannon, and the plan was to equip it with a carbon dioxide laser.

18. Space Command said a Russian satellite, Cosmos 2543, ‘operated in abnormally close proximity to a US government satellite in low-earth orbit before it manoeuvred away and over to another Russian satellite, where it released another object in proximity to the Russia target satellite. This test is inconsistent with the intended purpose of the satellite as an inspector system, as described by Russia.’.

19. According to Raytheon Technologies Corporation, the EKV and SM-3 ASAT weapon systems have a combined record of 40 successful interceptions in space.

20. This vehicle has been in orbit six times from April 2010, increasing the duration of its missions from 224 days for the first to 780 days for the last (Weeden 2020b; Pfrang and Weeden 2020g).

21. According to Grego (2012), the US has developed the MIRACL ground-based laser as an ASAT weapon. In 1997 a test by the US using the MIRACL system damaged a satellite at an altitude of 420 km. The Soviet Union/Russia has developed several types of ASAT energy weapons. During the 1980s the Soviet Union developed an orbital weapon platform (a space battle-station), the Polyus, armed with a carbon dioxide laser. This battle-station was launched in May 1987 but failed to reach orbit. It used the same laser weapon as had previously been developed for the Beriev A-60 aircraft. Apart from ground-based laser weapons, another strategy has been the development of airborne lasers, using the Boeing YAL-1 or the Beriev A-60 aircraft by the Soviet Union. More recently, in 2003, Russia started developing a new airborne laser, the Sokol-Eschelon, also based on the Beriev A-60 aircraft (Grego 2012). Little information is available about the Chinese ASAT energy weapon program, except that some spacecraft have been illuminated by Chinese lasers.

22. In December, 2011 a U.S. surveillance drone was captured by Iran using this technique (Ruckle 2019).

23. The dynamics of the number of objects in orbit depends on several factors. Launches, collisions, explosions, and ASAT tests contribute positively to the amount of debris. By contrast, atmospheric drag and operational de-orbiting activities contribute negatively, reducing the amount of debris. The decline in the total number of objects in orbit during the years 1989 and 1990 is explained by a larger number of (both intentionally and naturally) de-orbited objects than the new objects in orbit.

24. This method for calculating the risk of collision considers an average size of space objects to estimate the probability of collision of two objects. For an alternative way of modelling the probability of collision, see Letizia et al. (2017).

25. Once the calibrated model is solved numerically for the optimal quantity of satellites and launches, we simulate a shock in the dynamic equation for the stock of orbital debris. The equilibrium of the model (the steady state) is defined as the solution for which the number of launches is those required for replacing destroyed or end-life satellites, such as the number of satellites in orbit remains constant. For simulating an AD-ASAT test, the shock takes the value of the number of fragments produced by the test. Given the shock we obtain the so-called impulse-response functions for the key variables of the model, indicating how these variables respond to the shock over time once the shock takes place. The impulse-response functions are represented in terms of percentage deviations of the variables with respect to their initial equilibrium value.

26. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database. Data for May 1, 2022. The UCS Satellite Database contains details on 5,465 satellites in orbit, including their country of origin, purpose, and other operational details.