The recent political situation in Ethiopia and rapprochement with Eritrea

ABSTRACT

This article is designed to provide an overview of the historical and contemporary relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea as well as to examine the recent geopolitical situation and the perception of local people in Ethiopia. This paper is mainly based on secondary data analysis of the available secondary information and news reports, online articles, academic literature, interviews and discussions. The Ethio-Eritrea war brought political, economic and social security threats to the Horn of Africa. Although the economy in Ethiopia is at the developing stage, recent protests have shaken the country to its core. Since 2015, anti-government protests have been triggered over freedom of the press, land rights, under-represented seats in the coalition parties, and horizontal inequality in economic, political and social affairs among ethnic groups across the country. In this study, it is established that the unrestrained political circumstance of the current regime has created dissension and violence among the public, and thus led to escalating political, economic and security crises in Ethiopia. If this issue is not rectified quickly, the peace in the country may be jeopardised. Another issue is that although Ethiopia-Eritrea rapprochement is appreciated, the agreement between both leaders and their foreign policy orientation is still unclear.

KEYWORDS:

• Ethiopia
• Eritrea
• Protest
• Amhara
• Oromo
• state of emergency
• EPRDF

Acknowledgement

We would like to show gratitude to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) for their research funding support. The authors are indebted to the editor and reviewers for constructive comments.

Notes on contributors

Amsalu K. Addis (PhD) Fuzhou University School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou, China. He has authored numerous publications on politics, political economics, Investment, international relations, as well as engineering.

Simplice Asongu (Prof.) is a researcher, Academician, Research supervisor and Lead Economist and Director of the African Governance and Development Institute, Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Zhu Zuping (Prof.) s a researcher, Research supervisor, Professor and Dean of Fuzhou University (Zhi-Cheng campus). He holds a Doctorate Degree from Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Hailu Kendie Addis (Dr.) is a senior researcher in soil and water management at Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. He holds a Doctorate Degree in Soil and Natural Technology from BOKU University, Vienna, Austria. He has authored numerous publications on land protection, soil erosion, and agricultural development.

Eshetu Shifaw (Dr.) is an assistant professor and researcher at Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia. He holds a Doctorate Degree in GIS and Cartography from Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China. He has authored numerous publications in the area of land cover transition, landscape mosaics, ecosystem system, and modelling water yield.

Notes

1 Rosen, ‘Constitutional Process, Constitutionalism, and the Eritrean experience’.

2 United Nations, The United Nations and the Independence of Eritrea; See also, Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War: Making Sense of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War.

3 Rosen, ‘Constitutional Process, Constitutionalism, and the Eritrean experience’.

4 Wrong, ‘Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Perils of Reform’; Young, ‘The Tigray and Eritrean Peoples Liberation Fronts’.

5 Gebrekidan, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea Declare an End to Their War’; Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War: Making Sense of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War.

6 Kaleab, ‘No Peace No War’.

7 Trivelli, ‘Divided Histories, Opportunistic Alliances’; Hamilton, ‘Beyond the Border War’.

8 Cornwell, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea’; See also, Kaleab, ‘No Peace No War’.

9 Gilkes and Plaut, ‘The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea’.

10 Steves, ‘Regime Change and War’.

11 Murphy, ‘The Eritrean-Ethiopian War (1998-2000)’.

12 Kaleab, ‘No Peace No War’.

13 ibid.

14 Gebrekidan, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea Declare an End to Their War’; Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War: Making Sense of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War.

15 Jacquin-Berdal and Plaut, Unfinished Business: Eritrea and Ethiopia at War; Murphy, ‘The Eritrean-Ethiopian War (1998-2000)’.

16 Murphy, ‘The Eritrean-Ethiopian War (1998-2000)’.

17 EEBC, ‘Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC)’.

18 Gebrekidan, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea Declare an End to Their War’; Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War: Making Sense of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War.

19 Discussion and interview with some local Ethiopian scholars about the current social, economic and political crises through social media networks, between August and October.

20 Gebrekidan, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea, Longtime Foes, Meet for Peace Talks’.

21 Woldemariam, ‘“No War, No Peace” in a Region in Flux’, 14.

22 Gebrekidan, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea Declare an End to Their War’; Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War: Making Sense of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War.

23 Addis and Zhu, ‘The Political Situation, Trends and Geopolitical Implications of Sub-Saharan and North African Countries’.

24 Záhořík, ‘Reconsidering Ethiopia’s Ethnic Politics in the Light of the Addis Ababa Master Plan and Anti-governmental Protests’.

25 SoE refers to the occurrence or imminent occurrence of special major emergencies and the need for state organs to exercise emergency authority to control them and eliminate their social hazards and threats.

26 BBC News, ‘Why has Ethiopia Imposed a State of Emergency?’.

27 The command post was established to oversee and execute the SoE in Ethiopia and controlled by Siraj Fegessa, Minister of Defence and head of the Command Post Secretariat.

28 Agence France-Presse, ‘At Least 1,500 Arrests in Ethiopian State of Emergency’; Greenslade, ‘Ethiopia Uses Anti-terror Laws to Silence Critical Journalists’.

29 Ibid.

30 Washington Post, ‘Abiy Ahmed Pulls Off an Astonishing Turnaround for Ethiopia’.

31 Agence France-Presse, ‘At Least 1,500 Arrests in Ethiopian State of Emergency’; Greenslade, ‘Ethiopia Uses Anti-terror Laws to Silence Critical Journalists'.

32 Addis and Zhu, ‘Assessment of the Impact of Chinese and Indian Economic Activities in Africa’.

33 Wubneh, ‘Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Africa’s Diplomatic Capital’.

34 Addis and Zhu, ‘The Political Situation, Trends and Geopolitical Implications of Sub-Saharan and North African Countries’, 111.

35 Ibid.

36 Human Rights Watch, Development Without Freedom, 13.

37 Plaut, ‘The legacy of MelesZenawi’, 645.

38 Aalen, ‘Ethnic Federalism in a Dominant Party State’; Abbink, ‘Ethnic-based Federalism and Ethnicity in Ethiopia’.

39 Yideg and Premanandam, ‘Horizontal Inequality and Political Instability in Amhara Region, Ethiopia’.

40 Plaut, ‘The legacy of MelesZenawi’, 645.

41 Tadesse and Young, ‘TPLF’, 391.

42 Záhořík, ‘Reconsidering Ethiopia’s Ethnic Politics in the Light of the Addis Ababa Master Plan and Anti-governmental Protests'.

43 Reid, ‘Old Problems in New Conflicts’; Adugna, ‘Regional Economic Favoritism and Redistributive Politics as a Public Good’.

44 McCracken, ‘Abusing Self-determination and Democracy’; Plaut, ‘The Legacy of MelesZenawi’; Young, ‘The Tigray and Eritrean Peoples Liberation Fronts’.

45 Human Rights Watch, Development Without Freedom; Young, ‘The Tigray and Eritrean Peoples Liberation Fronts’; Záhořík, ‘Reconsidering Ethiopia’s Ethnic Politics in the Light of the Addis Ababa Master Plan and Anti-governmental Protests’.

46 Interview with local Ethiopian societies about the current social and political situation between July and October.

47 Aglionby, ‘Ethiopia to Release All Political Prisoners’; Maclean, ‘Ethiopia Says it Will Free All Political Prisoners’.

48 Moore, ‘Ethiopia Says it Will Close Notorious Prison and Free Some Inmates’; See also, Gudina, ‘Elections and Democratization in Ethiopia, 1991–2010’.

49 McCracken, ‘Abusing Self-determination and Democracy’; Ylönen, ‘Is the Horn of Africa’s “Cold War” Over?’

50 McCracken, ‘Abusing Self-determination and Democracy’, 203.

51 Ibid, 186.

52 Aalen, ‘Ethnic Federalism in a Dominant Party State’; Adugna, ‘Regional Economic Favoritism and Redistributive Politics as a Public Good’; see also, McCracken, ‘Abusing Self-determination and Democracy’.

53 Yideg and Premanandam, ‘Horizontal Inequality and Political Instability in Amhara Region, Ethiopia'.

54 Aalen, ‘Ethnic Federalism in a Dominant Party State’; Adugna, ‘Regional Economic Favoritism and Redistributive Politics as a Public Good'; see also, McCracken, ‘Abusing Self-determination and Democracy'.

55 Gebregziabher and Hout, ‘The Rise of Oligarchy in Ethiopia’.

56 Gebregziabher, ‘Ideology and Power in TPLF’s Ethiopia’.

57 Washington Post, ‘Abiy Ahmed Pulls Off an Astonishing Turnaround for Ethiopia’.

58 Ylönen, ‘Is the Horn of Africa's “Cold War” Over?’; Teminand Badwaza, ‘Aspirations and Realities in Africa'.

59 Schemm, ‘Under a New State of Emergency’.

60 Ylönen, ‘Is the Horn of Africa’s “Cold War” Over?’; Teminand Badwaza, ‘Aspirations and Realities in Africa’.

61 ibid.

62 Kaleab, ‘No Peace No War’.

63 Reid, ‘The Trans-Mereb Experience’.

64 Reid, ‘Old Problems in New Conflicts’.

65 Ibid, 371.

66 Cornwell, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea'; See also, Kaleab, ‘No Peace No War’.

67 ibid.

68 Lyons, ‘The Ethiopia–Eritrea Conflict and the Search for Peace in the Horn of Africa’, 168.

69 Lorton, ‘The Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict’; Lyons, ‘The Ethiopia–Eritrea Conflict and the Search for Peace in the Horn of Africa’; Wrong, ‘Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Perils of Reform’.

70 Woldemariam, ‘“No War, No Peace” in a Region in Flux’, 420.

71 Ylönen, ‘Is the Horn of Africa's “Cold War” Over?’; Teminand Badwaza, ‘Aspirations and Realities in Africa'.

72 Gebrekidan, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea Declare an End to their War’; Kiunguyu, ‘Eritrea’.

73 Ylönen, ‘From Demonisation to Rapprochement’.

74 Lorton, ‘The Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict’; Woldemariam, ‘“No War, No Peace” in a Region in Flux’.

75 Kiunguyu, ‘Eritrea’;Ylönen, ‘From Demonisation to Rapprochement’; Záhořík, ‘Reconsidering Ethiopia’s Ethnic Politics in the Light of the Addis Ababa Master Plan and Anti-governmental Protests’.

76 Allo, ‘Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict, 20 Years On’.

77 Sengupta, ‘Ethiopia’s New Leader Raises Hopes. Now Comes the Hard Part’.

78 Gudina, ‘Elections and Democratization in Ethiopia, 1991–2010’; Vaughan, ‘Revolutionary Democratic State-building’.

79 Qeerroo- youth in Afaan Oromo; Fano - movement of youth for democracy. Both of them are the national youth movementfor democracy and freedom resistance groups in Oromo and Amhara region respectively.

80 Pilling and Barber, ‘Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed’.

81 Addis and Zhu, ‘Assessment of the Impact of Chinese and Indian Economic Activities in Africa’.

82 Discussion and interview with some local Ethiopian scholars about the current social, economic and political crises through social media networks, between August and October.

83 ibid.

84 Gotamo, ‘Ethiopians Can’t Afford Additional Ethnic Kelils in Their Country’.

85 Gebregziabher, ‘Ideology and Power in TPLF’s Ethiopia’; McCracken, ‘Abusing Self-determination and Democracy’.

86 Human Rights Watch, Development Without Freedom; McCracken, ‘Abusing Self-determination and Democracy’; Plaut, ‘The Legacy of MelesZenawi’.

87 Reid, ‘Old Problems in New Conflicts’.

88 ibid.

89 Maasho, ‘Ethiopia Says Launches Offensive Against Oromo Rebels’; Fana Broadcasting Corporation, ‘About 18 Banks Robbed in Three Zones of Oromia: Bureau’; Worstall, ‘IRA Financing Techniques Turn up in Oromo, Ethiopia – Bank Robberies’.

90 Temin and Badwaza, ‘Aspirations and Realities in Africa’.

91 Addis and Zhu, ‘The Political Situation, Trends and Geopolitical Implications of Sub-Saharan and North African Countries’; Minwagaw, ‘Ethiopia’.

92 Minwagaw, ‘Ethiopia’.

93 Pilling and Barber, ‘Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed’.

94 Aalen, ‘Ethnic Federalism in a Dominant Party State’; Abbink, ‘Ethnic-based Federalism and Ethnicity in Ethiopia'.

95 Medemer’ meaning togetherness, which some believe is a fresh ideology. Nevertheless, many agree Medemer is not so much an ideology but suggests the opportunity of forgiveness of past misdeeds for the sake of common good.

96 Yideg and Premanandam, ‘Horizontal Inequality and Political Instability in Amhara Region, Ethiopia'.

97 Adugna, ‘Regional Economic Favoritism and Redistributive Politics as a Public Good’; McCracken, ‘Abusing Self-determination and Democracy’.

Additional information

Funding

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article: This paper was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [grant number 19AGL017]. The funders have no role in the design, development, and submission of the study to the journal.