Security sector spending and public safety in South Sudan, 2006–2018

ABSTRACT

This analysis draws from security and state spending data to measure the human security experience in South Sudan. The results show a more volatile security environment following independence. Defence expenditure and human security, as measured in the number of insecurity episodes, are unrelated. Descriptive evidence indicates that human security and security expenditure tend to vary unpredictably over time, a signal that security sector spending is unresponsive to the country's security predicaments. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models suggest the same: security sector spending does not contain local insecurity. Instead, more defence investment seems to correlate with insecurity; an additional 1% spent on security translates to at least 60 deaths. This finding reflects the importance of reviewing South Sudan's security sector in order to properly situate the reforms currently outlined in Chapter II of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As these reforms get implemented, security sector expenditures need strict oversight, with improved accountability measures integrated to minimise inefficiencies and foster sustainable socioeconomic and security results. Lastly, recent improvements in the security situation, as represented by significant reductions in violence, should be strategically leveraged to enable greater public confidence and trust in the recently inaugurated R-ARCSS.

KEYWORDS:

• South Sudan
• ACLED
• SPLA/SPLM
• public safety
• security sector spending
• R-ARCSS
• accountability

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Notes on contributor

Augustino Ting Mayai is a South Sudanese demographic and development specialist with a Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin—Madison. He is a research Director at the Sudd Institute. He is an experienced, applied quantitative researcher, with over 10 years of hands—on analysis of national development data. Dr Mayai has written extensively on South Sudan's current affairs, with focus on conflict/humanitarian crisis, health, education, development, and gender.

Notes

1 Jok and Hutchison, ‘Sudan’s Prolonged Second Civil War’; De Waal, ‘When Kleptocracy Becomes Insolvent’; Rolandsen, ‘Another Civil War in South Sudan’; Pinaud, ‘South Sudan: Civil War’; Johnson, ‘Briefing: The Crisis in South Sudan’; Onapa, ‘South Sudan Power-sharing Agreement R-ARCSS’; Deng, ‘Compound Fractures-political Formations’.

2 Burr, ‘Quantifying Genocide in Southern Sudan’.

3 Brosche, ‘CPA – New Sudan, Old Sudan or Two Sudans?’.

4 CPA, Provision 2.7.2 National Security Service.

5 IGAD, ‘Comprehensive Peace Agreement’.

6 Jok, Diversity, Unity, and Nation Building in South Sudan.

7 Ibid.

8 IPC, ‘South Sudan Key IPC Findings’.

9 Checchi et al., ‘Estimates of Crisis-attributable Mortality in South Sudan’.

10 ACLED, ‘Armed Conflict Location Event Data’.

11 World Bank Group, Country Policy and Institutional Assessment.

12 Jackson, ‘Security Sector Reform and State Building’.

13 Nhial, Kafi, and Seisi, ‘Human Rights Abuses in Sudan’; Harker, ‘Human Security in Sudan’.

14 Rone, ‘Sudan: Oil & War’; Ibid.

15 Ibid.

16 Reeves, ‘The Three Biggest Threats to Newly Independent South Sudan’.

17 HSBA, ‘Swings, Pendulum’.

18 Ibid.; HSBA, Fighting for Spoils.

19 Ibid.

20 Fleischner, Protective Measures.

21 Arnold and LeRiche, Allies and Defectors.

22 Ottaway and El-Sadany, ‘Sudan: From Conflict to Conflict’.

23 Schomerus and Walmsley, The Lord’s Resistance Army in Sudan; Ibid.

24 Ibid.

25 Heo, ‘The Political Economy of Defense Spending’.

26 Aizenman and Glick, ‘Military Expenditure, Threats, and Growth’.

27 Ward and Majahan, ‘Defense Expenditures, Security Threats, and Governmental Deficits’.

28 Deger, ‘Human Resources, Government Education Expenditure’.

29 Mintz and Huang, ‘Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth’.

30 Aslam, ‘Measuring the Peace Dividend’.

31 Deléchat et al., ‘Exiting from Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa’.

32 Ibid.

33 Deng, Hussein, and Mayai, ‘Identifying Binding Constraints on Growth’.

34 Bodea, Higashijima, and Singh, ‘Oil and Civil Conflict’.

35 Ibid.

36 Paldam, ‘Does Economic Growth Lead to Political Stability?’.

37 Human Rights Watch, ‘Sudan: Human Rights Developments’.

38 USCRI, ‘USCR Country Report Sudan’.

39 IOM DTM, ‘Displacement Site Flow Monitoring, 1–31 December 2018’.

40 Taydas and Peksen, ‘Can States Buy Peace?’; Taeb, ‘Agriculture for Peace’.

41 Ibid.

42 Justino and Martorano, ‘Welfare Spending and Political Conflict’.

43 Ibid.; Garang, ‘The Question of Big Government, and Financial Viability’.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the United Nations Development Program, South Sudan.