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ABSTRACT
In this article, we examine the growth of ethnopolitical divisions in Ethiopia. Using recently released Afrobarometer data and comparing current levels of ethnonational identity with previous data released in 2013, we find an erosion in support for a national Ethiopian identity, and rapidly growing ethnonational identities among Oromo and Tigrayan respondents, but not Amhara. This suggests that the attempts by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to promote ‘Ethiopianess’ as a unifying principle for the country will face great challenges. In addition, although it is tempting to lay the blame for this growing ethnonationalism at the ‘feet’ of the ethnofederal system in Ethiopia (as many scholars have) this study cannot directly address the connection between ethnic federalism and ethnic conflict and instability. However, what is clear is that there is a growing sense of ethnonationalism (or the idea that ethnic identity is now more important than a national Ethiopian identity) for a significant part of the population and this is consistent with the expectations of the critics of ethnofederalism. This also suggests greater challenges to Ethiopian unity in the near future.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Woldemariam, ‘Can Ethiopia's Reforms Succeed?’, 1.
2 Kagwanja, ‘Abiy's Ethiopia Democratic Revolution is Unravelling’, 1. See also Nezar Manik ‘Abiy Ahmed’s Reforms Have Unleashed Forces He Can No Longer Control’.
3 Marks, ‘Ethiopia Claims Victory in Tigray Conflict … ’, 1.
4 For a discussion see Ishiyama, ‘Is Ethnonationalism Growing in Ethiopia … .’.
5 Ibid.; Aalen, ‘Ethnic Federalism and Self-determination’; Abbink, ‘Ethnicity and Conflict Generation in Ethiopia’.
6 Roeder, ‘Ethnofederalism and the Mismanagement of Conflicting Nationalism’; Roeder ‘Where Nation-States Come From’; Cornell, ‘Autonomy as a Source of Conflict’; Bunce Subversive Institutions ; Bunce et al., ‘Managing Diversity and Sustaining Democracy’; for a counter argument see Anderson, Federal Solutions To Ethnic Problems ; Anderson, ‘Ethnofederalism: The Worst Form of Institutional Arrangement?’
7 Roeder ‘Ethnofederalism and the Mismanagement of Conflicting Nationalism’; Brass, Ethnicity and Nationalism.
8 The EPRDF was an umbrella political organisation made up of five ethnically based parties, and dominated at its core by the Tigrayan Peoples' Liberation Front (TPLF).
9 See Abbink, ‘Ethnicity and Conflict Generation in Ethiopia’; Roeder, ‘Ethnofederalism and the mismanagement of conflicting nationalism’; Brass, Ethnicity and Nationalism.
10 Afrobarometer, Wave 5 and Wave 8
11 Keller and Omwami, ‘Federalism, Citizenship and National Identity in Ethiopia’, 39–40.
12 Ibid., 39; Levine, Greater Ethiopia: The Evolution of a Multi-ethnic Society.
13 Keller, Revolutionary Ethiopia: From Empire to People’s Republic.
14 Mamdani, ‘The Trouble with Ethiopia’s Ethnic Federalism’; Fiseha, ‘Federalism, Development and the Changing Political Dynamics’; Mehretu, ‘Ethnic Federalism and its Potential to Dismember the Ethiopian state’; Abbink, ‘Ethnicity and Conflict Generation in Ethiopia’.
15 Abbink, ‘Ethnicity and Conflict Generation in Ethiopia’, 596.
16 Ibid., 612.
17 Roeder, ‘Ethnofederalism and the Mismanagement of Conflicting Nationalism’;see also Bunce et al., ‘Managing Diversity and Sustaining Democracy’.
18 Roeder, Where Nation-States Come From.
19 Brass, Ethnicity and Nationalism ; Liam Anderson (Federal solutions to ethnic problems) on the other hand, defends ethnic federalism as a potential workable solution in ethnically divided countries and is critical of the critics of ethnic federalism. First he notes that critics like Roeder only focus on cases where ethnic federalism did not work such as the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. More importantly if there are no plausible alternatives to ethnofederalism in a given case, or the alternatives are demonstrably inferior, then the argument that ethnofederalism is a poor institutional choice may be true, but it is also, in his view, irrelevant.
20 Anderson, ‘Ethnofederalism: The Worst Form of Institutional Arrangement?’.
21 Turton, Ethnic Federalism: The Ethiopian Experience in Comparative Perspective; Klymicka ‘Emerging Western Models of Multinational Federalism’
22 Ishiyama, ‘The Politics of Appeasement?’; Tronvoll, ‘Briefing: The Ethiopian 2010 Federal and Regional Elections.’
23 Woldeyohannes, ‘Ethiopia: Why Deny Ethiopian National Identity?’.
24 Borago, ‘What is the Point of Amhara Nationalism’; Tadesse, ‘Do the Amhara Exist as a Distinct Ethnic Group?’.
25 Hussein, ‘Full English Transcript of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy’s Inaugural Address.’
26 International Crisis Group (ICG), Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition, 24.
27 Ibid, 25.
28 Ibid.
29 Ibid.
30 Ibid.
31 Parsons, Structure and Process in Modern Societies; Gellner, Thought and Change; Apter Politics of Modernization; Bendix, Nation-Building and Citizenship; Deutsch Nationalism and Social Communication.
32 Conner, ‘Nation-Building or Nation-Destroying?’; Coleman, ‘Nationalism in Tropical Africa’, 405.
33 Robinson, ‘National versus Ethnic Identification in Africa’, 713.
34 Gellner, Nations and Nationalism.
35 Eifert, Miguel, and Posner ‘Political Competition and Ethnic Identification in Africa’; Bates ‘Modernization, Ethnic Competition’; Connor, ‘Nation-Building or Nation-Destroying?’.
36 Eifert, Miguel, and Posner, ‘Political Competition and Ethnic Identification in Africa’.
37 Posner, ‘The Political Salience of Cultural Difference’.
38 Bratton, Mattes, and Gyimah-Boadi, Public Opinion, Democratiztion and Market Reform in Africa.
39 Ibid., 187.
40 Keller and Omwami, ‘Federalism, Citizenship and National Identity in Ethiopia’.
41 Robinson, ‘National versus Ethnic Identification in Africa’, 714.
42 Stokes, ‘What it Takes to Truly be One of us’.
43 Berkel, Molina and Mukherjee, ‘Gender Asymmetry in the Construction of American National Identity’; Wickes, Smith and Phillips, ‘Gender and National Identity’.
44 Keller and Omwami, ‘Federalism, Citizenship and National Identity in Ethiopia’.
45 Meca et al., ‘Discrimination and Ethnic Identity’.
46 Although the World Values Survey has conducted two survey studies in Ethiopia, one in 2011 and one in 2020, neither included questions that directly asked respondents whether they identified more with their ethnic identity than with their national (Ethiopian) identity.
47 Keller and Omwami, ‘Federalism, Citizenship and National Identity in Ethiopia.’
48 Ibid.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
John Ishiyama
John Ishiyama is Distinguished Research Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas and is the President Elect of the American Political Science Association. He has published extensively on ethnic politics, democratisation, and civil conflict.
Post Basnet
Post Basnet is PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of North Texas. His research interests include ethnic politics, political parties, and ethnic conflict.