Evaluating the impact of double dose vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 spread through optimal control analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a new nonlinear epidemic model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 that incorporates the effect of double dose vaccination. The model is analyzed using qualitative, stability, and sensitivity analysis techniques to investigate the impact of vaccination on the spread of the virus. We derive the basic reproduction number and perform stability analysis of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The model is also subjected to sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential model parameters affecting the disease dynamics. The values of the parameters are estimated with the help of the least square curve fitting tools. Finally, the model is simulated numerically to assess the effectiveness of various control strategies, including vaccination and quarantine, in reducing the spread of the virus. Optimal control techniques are employed to determine the optimal allocation of resources for implementing control measures. Our results suggest that increasing the vaccination coverage, adherence to quarantine measures, and resource allocation are effective strategies for controlling the epidemic. The study provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the pandemic and offers guidance for policymakers in formulating effective control measures.

Keywords:

• Double does vaccination
• stability analysis
• sensitivity analysis
• optimal control
• numerical methods

Acknowledgments

The first author appreciates the support provided by Petchra Pra Jom Klao Ph.D. Research Scholarship through grant no (50/2565), by King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Thailand.

This research project is supported by King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI), and National Science, Research and Innovation Fund (NSRF) Fiscal year 2024.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Data availability statement

All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this article.

Additional information

Funding

The author(s) reported there is no funding associated with the work featured in this article.