The next great challenges in systems thinking: a defence perspective

Abstract

Defence research and development is superbly rich in the challenges of designing highly complex technologically based systems. These present very difficult systems thinking problems that will have to be solved if a systems approach is to be successfully applied to creating and sustaining the military capabilities and forces that the UK will need for the twenty-first century. Beginning with the nature of capability and introducing the concepts of capability engineering and through-life capability management, this paper explores the nature of these challenges from the perspectives of history and the author's experiences in working with colleagues in the UK and Allied defence acquisition communities. In his analysis, he identifies four ‘next great systems thinking challenges’: language, complexity, longevity and agility, overcoming each of which will require innovation in research and the development of new systems engineering and systems thinking practices. Looking further ahead, the author lists some of the emerging problems for defence, where taking a systems thinking approach could be particularly critical for success: demography, skills, education and human factors; security and the complexity of joined-up government; and the pace of technology advance. These are candidates for future next great challenges. Concluding, he notes that systems thinkers in defence are not alone. Complex capability engineering problems can also be found in energy, air and rail transport, complex IT networks, major civil engineering projects, and medicine and health care. Defence can learn a lot from systems thinkers in the civil world, and the civil world can learn a lot from defence.

Notes

It has even been a specialised and distinct branch of government: in 1939, the UK created a Ministry of Supply to acquire equipment on behalf of the armed forces. The Ministry existed as a separate Department of Government until 1959.

Churchill took part in the cavalry charge. Writing about the campaign in 1947 he said: ‘there is nothing so exhilarating in life as to be shot at without result’.

Some possible candidates include:

• the failure of the Maginot Line and a superior force of French mechanised armour to hold back the German offence in 1940;

• the first use of the helicopter for airborne assault in Vietnam in 1965 (Moore and Galloway 1992);

• and, on a smaller scale, US Army experiences in Somalia in 1993 (Bowden 1999).

Crecy (1346), Poitiers (1356) and Agincourt (1415) during the Hundred Years War are generally regarded as battles where the English use of the longbow was decisive. However, the French defeat at Agincourt was actually precipitated by a failure of French command and control that let the English exploit their archery to advantage. The English eventually lost the war withdrawing from all of northern France except Calais by 1453.

http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/10D1F054-A940-4EC6-AA21-D295FFEB6E8A/0/mod_brochure_hr.pdf, 2006.

http://www.aof.mod.uk/: ‘The authoritative source of policy and good practice for all members of the UK MOD and our Industry partners concerned with acquisition. The AOF defines how we conduct, govern and control our defence acquisition processes’.

To save the reader counting, this definition is four words longer than the Australian definition!

The mnemonic TEPIDOIL: Science and technology and the efforts of scientists, engineers and systems thinkers are most commonly linked to the equipment DLOD but they can, of course, contribute to any of them, and all of them, including how they integrate to form FE@R.

‘PRICIE’ with the ‘R’ equating to R&D/Operational Analysis; anticipating that a systems thinking approach is fundamental to creating new military capability?

Doctrine, Organisation, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities.

Capability definition, capability goals, baseline review and audit, risk and opportunity analysis, capability investigation endorse the plan.

The decision point in MOD's acquisition life cycle where a project is formally launched at the end of the concept phase of development. It is followed by the assessment and development phases before a commitment to Manufacture at Main Gate.

Long system life is not exceptional or a new phenomenon: the world's first jet-powered bomber was the English Electric Canberra. It was designed in 1945 and entered RAF service in 1951. It retained a front-line operational role until it was retired from active service in 2006. The US B52 bomber was designed in 1948 and the first variant flew in 1954. The version currently in service, the B-52H, first flew in 1961. It is still flying combat missions. The youngest B52 in the USAF inventory is 46 years old.

The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme, 2007–2036. http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/MicroSite/DCDC/OurPublications/StrategicTrends+Programme/.