Human intervention and the safety of complex structural systems

Abstract

Structural reliability theory based on probability provides a systematic, logical and consistent means to make estimates of the safety of complex structural systems. However, its application currently leaves it open to criticism that its predictions do not necessarily compare with reality and with accepted risk criteria in other contexts. Herein, it is proposed that this is because applications have not dealt satisfactorily with the issues of human error and particularly human intervention in the management of loads and resistances. Probability-based models for loads can be modified to include the influence of human intervention such as through including the effect of the degree of enforcement of regulatory requirements. Similarly, the standard of enforcement of minimum standards of material quality should be added to probability-based models for resistances. This is relevant particularly for the assessment and prediction of the future reliability and safety of existing structures.

Keywords:

• probability
• structures
• safety
• acceptance criteria
• philosophy

Acknowledgements

Some parts of the present paper were presented at a symposium in honour of (the late) Prof. Rudiger Rackwitz held at the Technical University München, Munich, in 2009. The useful comments from the reviewers are appreciated.

Funding

The financial support of the Australian Research Council is acknowledged with gratitude.