Risk and resilience: strategies for security

Abstract

Traditional approaches to security and safety are being challenged by ever-increasing complexity in today's socio-economic systems. New vulnerabilities are arising for many reasons: demographic shifts, trans-boundary networks, modern business practices, new systemic risks, and reliance on closely coupled infrastructure systems, among others. In such circumstances there needs to be greater allowance for uncertainty, and a different balance of proactive and reactive risk management. Decision-makers in both governments and the private sector require more comprehensive strategies that combine active management of specific risks with enhancement of generic resilience in society. Security will depend increasingly on community attributes such as social capital, informal communication networks, and organisational culture. As a general strategy for managing complex risks, this paper recommends a multilayered approach involving systems planning, risk management, resilience building, and adaptive responses.

Keywords:

• systems
• risk management
• resilience
• security
• strategy
• adaptation

Acknowledgements

This work has developed over a number of years, largely on the basis of the author's role in preparing policies and advice for government on national security issues. Aspects have been presented at conferences over the past decade: the International Disaster and Risk Conference, Davos, (2008 and 2014), meetings of the OECD High Level Risk Forum and others. Professor David Elms of the University of Canterbury, New Zealand, has willingly helped to refine the ideas and been a source of encouragement. His long-standing interest is gratefully acknowledged.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. This is a working paper published in order to make available some key ideas linking theory and practice in the management of national security issues. The views expressed are those of the author, and are not intended to represent official policy of the Government of New Zealand.

2. The OECD High Level Risk Forum has developed five recommendations for countries to help strengthen governance and management of critical risks at the national level. Formally adopted by OECD Ministers in May 2014, these incorporate elements of risk management, resilience building, and adaptive management:

• Establish and promote a comprehensive, all-hazards and trans-boundary approach to country risk governance to serve as the foundation for enhancing national resilience and responsiveness.

• Build preparedness through foresight analysis, risk assessments, and financing frameworks, to better anticipate complex and wide-ranging impacts.

• Raise awareness of critical risks to mobilise households, businesses, and international stakeholders, and foster investment in risk prevention and mitigation.

• Develop adaptive capacity in crisis management by coordinating resources across the government, its agencies, and broader networks to support timely decision-making, communication, and emergency responses.

• Demonstrate transparency and accountability in risk-related decision-making by incorporating good governance practices and continuously learning from experience.

3. Christchurch was relatively well researched in terms of its susceptibility to natural hazards, and its exposure to seismic shock in particular had been examined in detail over many years. Following the large earthquakes in Northridge and Kobe in the mid-1990s, the Christchurch Engineering Lifelines Group and the Centre for Advanced Engineering had undertaken a comprehensive investigation into the vulnerability of infrastructure serving the metropolitan area. Those findings, published in November 1997, led to new understandings of the risks, and triggered programmes of work to reduce exposures that involved local authorities, lifeline service providers, businesses, engineers, civil defence officials, and others (CAE 1997).

4. Planned adaptation is listed here as a separate step even though it is also an aspect of resilience. For highly uncertain or slowly developing issues, such as climate change, adaptation may be the most rational option.