Staged survival models for overlay performance prediction

Abstract

Asphalt concrete (AC) resurfacing is used by highway agencies to maintain and improve existing pavement conditions. With a large portion of their budgets being spent on road maintenance and rehabilitation, the agencies are interested in identifying the optimal timing of resurfacing and its life expectations. Using Kentucky's pavement management data, the research as presented by this paper investigated the procedures and methods of establishing thresholds and developing performance prediction models for AC overlays. Both transition probability matrix and data plots were used to investigate the performance trend of overlays. Based on the trend, two stage survival models were proposed to predict the resurfacing cycles. The first stage model can be used to predict the useful life of an overlay before a new resurfacing is required, while the second one can be used to predict the time window during which the new overlay must be applied to avoid accelerated pavement deterioration.

Keywords:

• Pavement performance
• Survival analysis
• Pavement distress
• Pavement management system
• Transition probability matrix