Use of exponential hidden Markov models for modelling pavement deterioration

Abstract

In this paper, the potential of using an exponential hidden Markov model to model an indicator of pavement condition as a hidden pavement deterioration process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is assumed that the evolution of the values of the pavement condition indices can be adequately described using discrete condition states and modelled as a Markov process. It is also assumed that the values of the indices can be measured over time and represented continuously using exponential distributions. The potential advantage of using such a model is illustrated using a real-world example.

Keywords:

• deterioration modelling
• exponential distribution
• hidden Markov model
• pavement management

Notes

^1. [email protected]

^2. A detailed explanation for the M-step and E-step in the EM algorithm can be found in Dempster et al. (1977) and McLachlan and Krishnan (1997).

^3. Time series data of texture depth were transformed from decreasing values to increasing values.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Bryan T. Adey

1 1. [email protected]