Abstract
Flushing is a pavement defect that has a negative effect on the structural integrity and performance of a pavement surface. The aim of this study was to develop a model to predict the occurrence and progression of flushing on sprayed seal pavements. Data analysis and model development were performed using data sourced from New Zealand's Long-Term Pavement Performance programme. The developed model consists of two phases to model (1) the probability of flushing initiating on a pavement and (2) the progression of flushing. The probability of flushing initiation was modelled using a logistic model format, and the progression of flushing was modelled using a linear model format. Testing of the developed model revealed that the logistic model predicted the probability of flushing initiation at 76% accuracy, whereas the linear model had statistically robust predictions of flushing. The developed model is recommended for use in sprayed seal pavement management processes.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for providing LTPP data and financial assistance for the research.