A comparison between three approaches for modelling deterioration of five pavement surfaces

Abstract

Reported in this paper are the process and outcomes of deterioration modelling for five types of pavement bituminous surfacing for use in identifying and prioritising resurfacing needs. Surface condition data is collected using subjective assessment surveys and the condition ratings of distresses are combined into a single measure referred to as surface inspection rating (SIR). Deterioration models of SIR as a function of surface age are developed for the five networks using three modelling approaches. They include regression analysis, logistic regression analysis and Markov chains. A comparison between the output models of the three approaches is presented and assessed in terms of predictions reasonableness and accuracy considering their closeness to actual data and practical local experience and engineering judgement. Overall the findings indicate that the three modelling approaches provide similar predictions and deterioration rates for most surfacing types. A comparison of performance between the five networks is also presented.

Keywords:

• Markov chain
• logistic regression
• pavement surface distress
• asphalt surfacing
• spray seal
• transition probability matrix
• flexible pavement

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge VicRoads support to publish this paper. The views of this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of VicRoads.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

^1. Email: [email protected]

^2. Email: [email protected]