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ABSTRACT
Airport pavements are designed to accommodate a broad range of aircraft loads, necessitating an airport-specific strength rating. Strength rating for a particular pavement is usually calculated deterministically, based on assumed pavement layer thicknesses and conservative values of stiffness for each layer of material. This research demonstrates a stochastic approach to flexible airport pavement strength determination via a case study on the Whitsunday Coast Airport. Construction records are statistically analysed and construction-based deterministic and stochastic strength ratings are compared to the design-based strength. The stochastic strength rating was generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The strength rating is found to vary greater with only slight differences in the probability of encountering understrength areas of pavement, and this case study is recommended as a template for the application to other airports. Also, 10,000 simulations were found to produce stable results and truncation of the distribution of construction factors had little impact on the resulting pavement strength distribution. Further research is recommended to better understand the distribution of asphalt modulus, as well as the direct engagement of design software for Monte Carlo simulation, in order to avoid the need for a pavement-specific prediction model.