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Abstract
The demonstrations in September 2007 were the most significant civil protests seen in Burma since the ill-fated pro-democracy uprising of 1988. The military government's brutal response to the latest unrest prompted an unprecedented level of diplomatic activity and a rare consensus on the need for political change. Since then, however, efforts to resolve the crisis have withered away, underlining the international community's inability over the past 20 years to make a significant impact on the situation in Burma. Neither the principled approach of some countries and organisations, nor the more pragmatic attitude adopted by others, has persuaded the regime to abandon any of its core positions. Indeed, by demonstrating the international community's continuing disagreement over Burma, and the limited policy options available, the lack of concerted action since the protests has probably encouraged the regime's obduracy and increased its confidence that it can survive external pressures. An appreciation of the generals’ threat perceptions may help the international community to understand the regime's intransigence, but it is still difficult to see what policies can be effective against a government that puts its own survival before accepted norms of behaviour and the welfare of its people. Real and lasting change will have to come from within Burma itself, but the events of 2007 suggest that this is a distant prospect.
Notes
1. Nine months after the armed forces took back direct political power in 1988, Burma was officially renamed the Union of Myanmar. At the same time, a number of other names were changed, for example Rangoon became Yangon. In this article, the original names have been retained for ease of recognition.
2. Burmese Buddhists believe that, by giving alms to monks and donations to religious institutions like pagodas and monasteries, they earn merit and improve their chances of reincarnation as a higher being. The refusal of the sangha to accept alms or to conduct ceremonies for members of the armed forces and their families, a policy called patta ni kazana kan, or more popularly ‘the overturning of the alms bowls’, thus denies these lay people religious support not only in this life, but also in the next. Such measures also deny the regime one of its key claims to legitimacy in such a devoutly Buddhist country.
3. Estimates of crowd sizes vary greatly and are still the subject of debate between activists, journalists, regime supporters and other observers (including members of Rangoon's diplomatic community). It has been claimed by some eye witnesses, for example, that many of the people included in estimates of numbers made by activists and journalists were pedestrians and other onlookers who took no active part in the protests.
4. Periodic announcements by activist groups in Burma during the demonstrations were picked up by foreign radio stations like the BBC, Voice of America and Radio Free Asia, and repeated verbatim in their Burmese language broadcasts. This greatly assisted groups around the country to keep abreast of developments in other population centres, and to coordinate their own actions. It was also possible for Burmese with access to satellite television broadcasts, such as BBC World News, to see uncensored footage of demonstrations in Burma the same day they occurred.
5. The actual size of Burma's armed forces is unknown. In 2001 they were believed to number about 400,000, making them the second largest in Southeast Asia. Since then, however, their size and capabilities appear to have declined. Some recent estimates of their size have been as low as 300,000 but, according to usually reliable sources, the actual figure is more likely to be between 350,000 and 375,000. Even if the size of the armed forces shrank to 1988 levels, however, the regime could still enforce its will over the Burmese population.