Evaluating the ‘China threat’: power transition theory, the successor-state image and the dangers of historical analogies

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Notes

1. For various arguments about the ‘threat’ posed by a rising China, see Bernstein and Munro (1997a), Kang (2003: 61), Krauthammer (1995), and Roy (1996: 758).

2. Organski and Kugler (1980) used gross national product, while Houweling and Siccama (1988), replicating Organski and Kugler's study, used Doran and Parson's five-factor measure and achieved significantly different results. In contemporary scholarship, the Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) that emerged from the Correlates of War project is most commonly used.