Afghanistan: ‘spoilers’ in the regional security context

Abstract

The ongoing international military withdrawal from Afghanistan has set the stage for energising the activities of Afghanistan's external stakeholders to re-evaluate their activities. The possible return of the Taliban in some form could compel Afghanistan's current external partners—Iran, India and Russia—to turn into limited spoilers. The absence of an international guarantor in Afghanistan from December 2014 is likely to encourage Pakistan—a greedy spoiler—to intensify its meddling as a means to reposition the Taliban—a total spoiler—at the helm of Afghan affairs. The combination of limited, greedy and total spoilers threatens to undermine security and state-building processes.

Keywords:

• Afghanistan
• Pakistan
• spoilers
• Taliban

Notes

1. The Taliban's vehement anti-Shia sentiment was confirmed in August 1998, when thousands of Hazaras were massacred in Mazar-e-Sharif. The following month, Taliban members killed nine Iranian diplomats living in the same city—a provocation that nearly led Iran to declare war on the Taliban regime. Given these incidents, Tehran is watchful of any inroads the Taliban is making and has no interest in seeing its neighbour turn into a ‘rogue’ state or ‘failed’ entity again.

2. Interview with a senior Iranian diplomat at the Institute of Political and International Studies, Tehran, May 2014.