The dynamics of emerging middle-power influence in regional and global governance: the paradoxical case of Turkey

ABSTRACT

This article attempts to understand the properties, potentials and limits of middle-power activism in a changing global order. Extensive debate on the rise of emerging powers notwithstanding, the potential contributions of emerging middle powers in regional and global governance, and the imminent challenges they face in their struggle for an upgraded status in the hierarchy of world politics, is an understudied issue. This study aims to fill this gap by offering a broad conceptual framework for middle-power activism and testing it with reference to the Turkish case. In this context, the authors aim to address the following questions: What kind of roles can emerging middle powers play in a post-hegemonic international system? What are the dynamics, properties and limitations of emerging middle-power activism in regional and global governance? Based on an extensive study of the Turkish case, the authors’ central thesis is that emerging middle powers can make important contributions to regional and global governance. Their ultimate impact, however, is not inevitable, but depends on a complementary set of conditions, which are outlined in this study.

KEYWORDS:

• Emerging middle powers
• post-hegemonic world order
• Turkish foreign policy
• Turkish political economy

Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the comments of Şuhnaz Yilmaz, Tim Dorlach, Ariel Gonzales, Mustafa Yagci, and the two anonymous referees of the Journal. We would like to thank Doruk Işıkcı and Öznur Gümüs for their able assistance.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 We use the term ‘near-BRICS’ for regional powers that are achieving high growth performance, demonstrating regional leadership ambitions and following economy-driven autonomous foreign policy strategies. In the literature, there are alternative definitions attributed to these states, such as ‘middle powers’, ‘swing states’, ‘emerging powers’ and ‘great peripheral states’. In this study, we call them ‘near-BRICS’ in order to refer to the ‘demonstration effects’ of BRICS on these countries. In other words, these states possess similar characteristics to BRICS regarding their economic growth performance and rising regional and international presence; nevertheless, they are not as significant as BRICS in terms of their economic scale (see Öniş and Kutlay 2013, 1424).

2 We should note that Sandal (2014) investigates middle-power status/policies as being a pragmatic legitimation strategy. However, we diverge from Sandal in the sense that we conceptualise middle-power strategy in emerging powers as being more than a legitimation strategy. We also see their roles as more than ‘mediators’ in international politics by putting emphasis on the broader conception of their role-model capabilities.