The trials and travails of the Islamic State in Pakistan

ABSTRACT

While Pakistan is in many ways an ideal location for transnational terrorist groups due to state weakness, Islamic State has had difficulty making headway in the country. In this article, the authors argue that Islamic State’s failures in Pakistan are due to competition from other groups. Drawing on the terrorist competition literature and interviews with Pakistani counterterrorism officials, the authors find that the presence of other groups in Pakistan meant there was little demand for what Islamic State offered. Islamic State relied on splinter groups and defectors for recruitment, which alienated mainstream groups and harmed the group’s capacity. Islamic State’s competition problems were exacerbated by its internationalist ideology, which was at odds with that of many groups in Pakistan, and allowed opposing groups to present themselves as reasonable alternatives to other actors. Despite Islamic State’s lack of success, it and its allies have still engaged in extreme violence in Pakistan as a result of attempts to outbid other groups. This article has implications for fighting terrorism in Pakistan and more generally.

KEYWORDS:

• Afghanistan
• Islamic State
• Pakistan
• state failure
• terrorism
• terrorist competition

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Rahinullah Yousafzai, Javed Aziz, Simbal Khan, the Inter-Service Intelligence officers, the military intelligence officers, the Intelligence Bureau officers, the National Counter Terrorism Authority officers, the police officers and various government officials for their valuable time and for taking interviews. The names of the Inter-Service Intelligence, military intelligence, National Counter Terrorism Authority and police officers are not disclosed for security reasons.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Justin V. Hastings is a Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Comparative Politics at the University of Sydney. He is the author of No Man's Land: Globalization, Territory, and Clandestine Groups in Southeast Asia (2010) and A Most Enterprising Country: North Korea in the Global Economy (2016), both from Cornell University Press.

Farah Naz is a Doctoral Candidate at the Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney. Her current research is on terrorism, extremism and radicalisation in Pakistan from gender perspectives. Her study is extensively based on fieldwork and confidential interviews with the Government of Pakistan Officials including the Military Intelligence (MI), Intelligence Bureau (IB), ISI, Police Officers, Journalists, Madrasah Clerics and Taliban.

Notes

1. Interview with military intelligence officers, Islamabad, May 22, 2016.

2. Interview with National Counter Terrorism Authority senior officials, Islamabad, May 24, 2016.

3. Interview with Simbal Khan, Islamabad, January 21, 2016.

4. Interview with National Counter Terrorism Authority senior officials, Islamabad, May 24, 2016.

5. Interview with police officers, Islamabad, May 24, 2016.

6. Interview with police officers, Islamabad, May 24, 2016.

7. Interview with Javed Aziz, Islamabad, May 22, 2016.

8. Interview with Javed Aziz, Islamabad, May 22, 2016.

9. Interview with Javed Aziz, Islamabad, May 22, 2016.

10. Interview with police officers, Islamabad, May 24, 2016.

Additional information

Funding

This research did not rely on any funding source.