Policies and Ideologies of the Kim Jong-un Regime in North Korea: Theoretical Implications

Abstract:

Soon after the death of Kim Jong-il on 17 December 2011, his youngest and previously least-known son, Kim Jong-un, was declared the next leader of North Korea. At least for now, it seems clear that the Kim Jong-un regime is determined to uphold the established policies and ideologies of its predecessor. The present study attempts to explain why that is the case using path-dependence theory. Obviously, the old policies and ideologies are intimately bound up with the political processes of the present regime. North Korea’s unique monolithic system, comprising the Juche ideology and the military-first policy, which was constructed during the Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il regimes, has exerted a comprehensive influence on the country’s political and socioeconomic development processes for decades, and it is clear that the existing policy and the institutional framework based on it wield a powerful influence on the current political processes. This greatly restricts the autonomy and the range of choices of the new incumbent, suggesting that path dependence is relevant in the case of the North Korean regime.

Keywords:

• North Korea
• Kim Jong-un
• Kim Jong-il
• Kim Il-sung
• path dependence
• monolithic system
• Juche
• military-first policy
• ideology

Notes

1. Kim Jong-un is reportedly fluent in English, French, German and Italian (Cheong, 2010, p. 175).

2. On “Juche” ideology, see Shin (2004); Chang (2003); Song (1997); Ko (1993); Kim (1993); and Park (2002; 1982).

3. Many commentators liken Juche ideology to a sort of religious movement. See Park (1998); Oh and Hassig (2000); Belke (1999); Snyder (1999); Armstrong (1998); and Barry (1996, p. 118).

4. The festival was held in an attempt to rival the 1988 Seoul Olympic Games, and North Korea spent around US$5 billion during the three years of preparation, which was approximately 23 per cent of its GNP at that time (Ha, 1997, p. 169).

5. For more information on the military-first policy, see Kim (2000).

6. It was reported by CNN in February 2005 that more than one quarter of North Korea’s GDP had been spent on the military (CNN.com, 10 February 2005).

7. Kim Jong-nam, aged 42, is Kim Jong-il’s son by his first wife, Sung Hae-rim. As Kim Jong-il’s eldest son, Kim Jong-nam had been groomed for succession, but reportedly fell out of favour after 2001, when he was detained at Narita Airport in Japan with a fake passport attempting to visit Tokyo Disneyland. Since that time, he has lived in apparent exile in Macao and Beijing.

8. North Korea has reportedly spent around US$850 million on its failed launch of the Unha-3 rocket and Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite over the past ten years (SBS News, 13 April 2012). This is estimated to be equivalent to the cost of feeding 19 million people for one year (Segyeilbo, 15 April 2012).