Election outcome and topic of political campaign attacks

Abstract

Previous research has shown that candidates who discuss policy more than their opponents are more likely to win elections. This study probes further into the relationship between message features and election outcome by investigating the relationship between topic of attacks in campaign messages and outcome of presidential elections. Using data from seven messages forms—primary TV spots, primary debates, primary direct mail brochures, nomination acceptance addresses, general TV spots, general debates, and general direct mail brochures—representing 89 candidates spanning 14 campaigns (1948–2000), this study investigates the question of whether a candidate's proclivity for attacking on policy or character influences election outcome. Overall, winners are likely to attack more on policy, and less on character, than losers. This effect is consistent, significant in all seven message forms, although the effect size is fairly modest.