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Economics of Innovation and New Technology Volume 28, 2019 - Issue 6
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Articles

What is the future of cancer care? A technology foresight assessment of experts’ expectations

Bernardo Pereira CabralCentro de Estudos Estratégicos, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilCorrespondence[email protected]
ORCID Iconhttp://orcid.org/0000-0001-8242-1244
ORCID Icon,
Maria da Graça Derengowski FonsecaInstituto de Economia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
&
Fabio Batista MotaCentro de Estudos Estratégicos, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilORCID Iconhttp://orcid.org/0000-0003-2401-7336
ORCID Icon
Pages 635-652 | Received 11 May 2018, Accepted 23 Oct 2018, Published online: 26 Nov 2018
 
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ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to generate qualified information on technologies that are expected to be relevant to cancer care over the next thirty years (2017–2037). Drawing on the concepts of technology foresight, a methodology was developed for future technology research. Future technologies were identified by consulting editorials of journals specializing in oncology. Nine technologies were selected with the potential to impact cancer care in the future. Additionally, a method was developed for consulting a large number of experts from articles indexed in Thomson Reuters Web of Science. In this survey, more than 83,000 cancer specialists were invited to answer a web survey in which they expressed their expectations about the future of cancer care. The questionnaire was answered by 2408 specialists, 56% of whom stated they were highly knowledgeable experts. Our results show that antibody-related therapies, molecular imaging, and tumor delivery systems are the technologies most likely to be used in cancer care in the next thirty years. The main reasons pointed out for the choice of these technologies were improvements in the prognosis of the disease and improved diagnostic reliability. Meanwhile, knowledge and scientific barriers were highlighted as the main obstacles to the development of the technologies deemed to have more limited chances of success.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the Editor and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions on earlier versions of this paper. We would also like to thank the Centro de Estudos Estratégicos da Fiocruz (CEE-Fiocruz) and the Economics Institute of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro for institutional support.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

ORCID

Bernardo Pereira Cabral http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8242-1244

Fabio Batista Mota http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2401-7336

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