The geometry of shadows: a critical review of organised crime risk assessments

Abstract

This article reports on a research project that aimed to review existing law enforcement approaches to assessing the risk posed by organised crime, as well as to examine the experience of law enforcement officers in using some of these approaches in different parts of the UK. We first outline the background to the project, before discussing some of the theoretical issues that all organised crime risk assessment approaches must typically grapple with. We then discuss some of the types of risk assessment approaches that are currently in use. Finally, drawing on the experience of officers and analysts using different approaches in the field, we consider the relative strengths and weaknesses of different extant assessment ‘tools’.

Keywords:

• organised crime
• risk assessment
• threat assessment

Notes

1. In this respect it can be seen as continuing and refining the work begun with NCIS's Organised Crime Notification Scheme (Gregory 2003).

2. The authors were part of the team which designed the new Scottish RA matrix, which is now in operation across the country. The content of the matrix is restricted due to its sensitive nature and we are therefore not able to report directly on the tool here. We focus instead on our review of tools in use or proposed in other jurisdictions, and our analysis of the various strengths and weaknesses of these approaches. Although we are not able to describe the Scottish tool, the approach we took in its design was to begin by simply building on these observed strengths, and trying to eradicate or minimise the weaknesses of other models.

3. Hereafter, for reasons that will be made apparent, we will choose to use the term ‘OCN’ rather than group, though much of the practitioner literature and guidance refers to ‘groups’.

4. The limitations of basing exact weights on officer judgements is particularly telling here. The tool was developed prior to 11 September 2001, and it would seem highly unlikely that the same relative weightings would have been produced through a Delphi exercise if it had been conducted after this date.