Abstract
A stochastic model was developed to explore policy scenarios designed to address the long-term sustainability of the farming sector in Western Uzbekistan. The model results evidence the need to move away from high input cropping systems, towards alternative crops. Reduced water use was obtained with the introduction of water-wise technologies, such as laser leveling and drip irrigation. In light of natural and man made water shortages in the region, a more sustainable farming system requires greater collective investment among Water User Associations (WUAs) as well as the redirection of government subsidies toward more environmentally friendly farming methods.
The authors are grateful to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their comments. All remaining errors are ours.
C. Martins current address: Inter–American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), São José dos Campos, Brazil.
Notes
1 Semi-structured interviews were also conducted with managers, economists and engineers at UPRADIK (Irrigation Canals Division, branch of Amu Darya Basin Management Department of Irrigation System in the Khorezm region), AgroProm (the Regional Department of Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources), UNS (Management of Pumping Stations), FDA (Farmer and dehqon's association), UISes (Irrigation System Management Organizations) and WUAs (Water Users Associations).
2 For more information on the ZEF/UNESCO Project, see http://www.zef.de.
3 Prescribed level of probability, α, means that the planned water demand must not exceed its availability with the requirement of a α level of confidence.
4 95% reflects the situation of water shortage during years of 2000 and 2001.
5 Source: KRASS NGO, Khorezm region, //www.krass.uz