Performance Shaping Factor Dependency Assessment Based on International Civil Aviation Accident Report Data

Abstract

The quantitative assessment of human error risk in computerized aircraft cockpit need a comprehensive understanding of performance shaping factor (PSF) effects on interaction tasks and the dependency between PSFs. This study employed stepwise logistic regression analysis and mediating effect analysis to explore PSF dependencies based on 872 air accident report data. Among the 14 PSFs of the established PSF taxonomy, five PSFs have significant influences on crew error. Further dependency analysis shows that a significant mediating effect exists in 16 PSF combinations, however, only 8 combinations should be considered in the actual human reliability analysis (HRA) process (indirect effect exceeds 20%). The study proposes an empirical method for identifying and assessing PSF dependencies. The results can be used to develop new or modify existing HRA methods according to the civil aviation context, as well as provide guidance to human error risk prevention and mitigation from broader perspectives in addition to interface facet.

Keywords:

• Human reliability analysis
• aviation accident investigation reports
• performance shaping factors
• dependency
• mediating effect analysis

Acknowledgement

The authors wish to acknowledge the Institute of Aviation Safety Science, Civil Aviation University of China for providing aviation accident investigation report compiles, which are the data source of this research.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Yanlong Wang

Yanlong Wang is currently a postdoctoral researcher at Shanghai Aircraft Design Research Institute of COMAC Ltd. His research interests include human factor engineering, human reliability analysis, and ergonomic comprehensive evaluation.

Lijing Wang

Lijing Wang is an associate professor at Beihang University. She received her PhD degree in Man-Machine and Environment Engineering from Beihang University in 2002. Her research interests include crew workload research and airworthiness assessment, human modeling and VR technology, human factors in design and human-AI interaction.

Dayong Dong

Dayong Dong is a senior researcher at Shanghai Aircraft Design Research Institute of COMAC Ltd., mainly in charge of aircraft flight deck integration and human factor certification activities. He received his PhD degree in Human-Machine-Environment Engineering, and made his Post Doctor research from Shanghai Jiaotong University.

Yingchun Chen

Yingchun Chen is a senior researcher at Shanghai Aircraft Design Research Institute of COMAC Ltd. He received his Master degree and PhD degree in Fluid Mechanics from Beihang University in 1988 and 2007 respectively. His area of research includes aircraft conceptual design, fluid mechanics, human engineering.

Yabin Hao

Yabin Hao is a 16,000 flight-hour airline captain at Air China Limited. He has served as a subject matter expert for about 10 years on numerous investigations and simulation tests conducted on variety of aircraft ergonomic design and safety technology mitigations to improve commercial aviation safety.