Did HOPE VI Move Communities to Opportunity? How Public Housing Redevelopment Affected Neighborhood Poverty, Racial Composition, and Resources 1990–2016

Abstract

Public housing is a key federal investment, yet it has suffered severe underfunding and decay. HOPE VI sought to transform public housing by improving housing quality, deconcentrating poverty, and enhancing economic opportunities. Using rigorous quasi-experimental methods and an array of geocoded annual national administrative data from 1990 to 2016, we evaluated the effects of HOPE VI redevelopment on neighborhood composition and resources. After matching HOPE VI and control census tracts, we used a new flexible conditional difference-in-differences technique to estimate average treatment effects on the treated, accounting for varying treatment start dates and durations. Results show that HOPE VI redevelopment decreased tract poverty by 2.9 percentage points, an effect that remained relatively stable through 10 years postredevelopment, and increased median household incomes with no indication of rising affluence. These effects were most pronounced in high-poverty and predominantly Black tracts, and where public housing experienced more costly redevelopment or transitioned to mixed-income. HOPE VI redevelopments did not affect racial composition or the presence of institutional resources, social services, or commercial resources (e.g., grocery stores, restaurants). Results suggest partial success of HOPE VI. Additional policy levers are necessary to increase public housing residents’ access to neighborhood services that promote economic opportunities and well-being.

Keywords:

• Public housing
• community redevelopment
• poverty
• policy analysis

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Rebekah Levine Coley

Rebekah Levine Coley is a Professor of Applied Developmental and Educational Psychology and Director of the Institute of Early Childhood Policy at Boston College. Her work focuses on identifying and interrupting economic and racial disparities in development and wellbeing.

Bryn Spielvogel

Bryn Spielvogel is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Utah. Her research is broadly focused on how the contexts that people live in and interact with shape their development and wellbeing.

Dabin Hwang

Dabin Hwang is a PhD candidate at the Boston College Lynch School of Education and Human Development. His research focuses on how inequities in children's developmental contexts, including schools, neighborhoods, and housing contributes to disparities in educational outcomes.

Joshua Lown

Joshua Lown is a PhD candidate at the Boston College School of Social Work. His research is broadly focused on community-based and participatory approaches to understanding the intersection of gentrification and residential experiences of social control, chronic urban trauma, and their relationship to space and place.

Samantha Teixeira

Samantha Teixeira is an Associate Professor at the Boston College School of Social Work. She holds a PhD in social work and her current research focuses on how the neighborhood environment shapes health disparities, with an emphasis on community-based research approaches.