Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Abstract

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.

Key Words:

• Bayesian methods
• MCMC methods
• Two diagnostic tests
• Verification bias

Notes

Note. ^(*)Standard deviation; ^(**)95% credibility interval.

Note. ^(*)Standard deviation; ^(**)95% credibility interval.