Abstract
The historical record of the majority of inter- and intra-state conflicts indicates frequent third-party interventions in these conflicts. In the decades following World War II, the United States has been one of the most frequent interveners in third world internal wars. This study focuses on the repercussions of U.S. military interventions on the intensity of civil conflict and political violence in the targeted nations. A comprehensive empirical analysis suggests that in addition to low per capita income, large populations, high religious fractionalization, and weak governance, the direct and indirect involvement of the U.S. military may also lead to increased civil strife and political violence in the targeted nations. U.S. military involvement increases the probability of political instability and unrest and hence could be one of the many conditions that favor insurgency.
Notes
∗Shows increase in conflict 1 year post intervention period. Coefficients have been reported. Figures in parenthesis are Z scores.
1. For a list of U.S. military interventions since World War II see .
2. Militarized Interstate Disputes Database (2005).
3. Panama: Background and Buildup of Invasion of 1989 by Jane Franklin. Available at http://andromeda.rutgers.edu/~hbf/panama.htm
4. Militarized Interstate Disputes Database.
5. Global Terrorism Database (A project of START, University of Maryland).
6. Global Terrorism Database is a project of START (National consortium for the study of terrorism and response to terrorism) University of Maryland.
7. See Fearon and Laitin 2003.
8. ibid.
9. ibid.
10. White's general test statistic: 597.4093 Chi-sq(144) p-value = 1.6e-56.
11. Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data Ho: no first-order autocorrelation F(1, 94) = 25.809 Prob > F = 0.0000.
12. Mean VIF: 1.44.
13. Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of conflict Ho: model has no omitted variables: F(3, 4401) = 26.25 Probability > F = 0.0000.
14. Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects: chi2(1) = 1530.48 Probability > chi2 = 0.0000.