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Abstract
Within a multiparty civil war involving domestic rivalries and regional antagonisms, the Kurdish-led PYD-YPG rebel movement managed to consolidate its political-military power in northeastern Syria. Using the analytical framework of Political Opportunity Structures (POS), we describe how, through its ability to maintain organizational cohesion and establish its own governance structures, and by forging alliances with domestic and foreign actors, it became the hegemonic power in the territory. Whereas it initially relied on coercive consolidation against its main Kurdish rivals, to secure local and international support against the significant threat posed by the Islamic State it had to shift to cooperative and cooptation strategies of power consolidation.
Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Bard O’Neill, Insurgency & Terrorism (Washington, DC: Brassey’s, Inc., 1990), 91–6.
2 Charles Tilly and Sidney Tarrow, Contentious Politics (Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers, 2007), 139.
3 Ana Arjona, Nelson Kasfir, and Zachariah Mampilly, eds., Rebel Governance in Civil War (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015).
4 Ana Arjona, Rebelocracy: A Theory of Social Order in Civil War (Notre Dame, IN: Kellogg Institute for International Studies, 2017.)
5 Rojava Information Centre, “Beyond the Frontlines: The Building of the Democratic System in North and East Syria,” 19 December 2019, https://rojavainformationcenter.com/storage/2019/12/Beyond-the-frontlines-The-building-of-the-democratic-system-in-North-and-East-Syria-Report-Rojava-Information-Center-December-2019-V4.pdf, 21.
6 Wladimir van Wilgenburg, “Dissecting the YPG: Operations and Strategies as the Defender of Rojava,” LSE Middle East Centre, 26 August 2016, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2016/08/26/dissecting-the-ypg-operations-and-strategies-as-the-defender-of-rojava/
7 Gayle T. Lemmon, The Daughters of Kobani: A Story of Rebellion, Courage, and Justice (New York: Penguin Random House, 2021), 35.
8 Tilly and Tarrow, Contentious Politics, 49.
9 See Doug McAdam, “Conceptual Origins, Current Problems, Future Directions,” in Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures and Cultural Framings, eds. Doug McAdam, John D. McCarthy, and Mayer N. Zald (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), 23–40; Ruud Koopmans. “Political Opportunity Structure: Some Splitting to Balance the Lumping,” in Rethinking Social Movements, eds. Jeff Goodwin and James Jasper (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2004), 61–73; Jack Goldstone. “More Social Movements or Fewer? Beyond Opportunity Structures to External Relational Fields,” Theory and Society 33, no. 3–4 (2004): 333–65.
10 Harriet Allsop and Wladimir van Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria: Governance, Diversity and Conflicts (London: I. B. Tauris, 2019), 15.
11 Andrew Dobbie, “Syria among Worst for Rights Abuses: HRW Report,” Reuters, 24 January 2011; Tom Perry, “Where Do the Kurds Fit into Syria’s War?” Reuters, 3 January 2019.
12 Human Rights Watch, “Syria: The Silenced Kurds,” October 1996, https://www.hrw.org/reports/1996/Syria.htm.
13 Robert Lowe, “The Emergence of Western Kurdistan and the Future of Syria,” in David Romano and Mehmet Gurses, eds. Conflict, Democratization, and the Kurds in the Middle East: Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014), 234–6.
14 Allsop and van Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 49.
15 Wilgenburg, “Dissecting the YPG.”
16 Özden Zeynep Oktav, “Water Dispute and Kurdish Separatism in Turkish-Syrian Relations,” The Turkish Yearbook of International Relations, 2003, http://dergiler.ankara.edu.tr/dergiler/44/674/8586.pdf, 102.
17 Gary C. Gambill, “The Kurdish Reawakening in Syria,” Middle East Forum 6, no. 4 (2004), http://www.meforum.org/meib/articles/0404_s1.htm.
18 Barak Barfi, “Kurds Now Our Best Ally Against ISIS in Syria,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 9 October 2015, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/kurds-now-our-best-ally-against-isis-in-syria
19 Jordi Tejel, “The evolution of Kurdish struggle in Syria: Between Pan-Kurdism and Syrianization, 1920–2016,” in Routledge Handbook on the Kurds, ed. Michael M. Gunter (London: Routledge, 2019), 366–81.
20 Wilgenburg, “Dissecting the YPG.”
21 See Hugh Macleod, “Football fans’ fight causes a three-day riot in Syria,” The Independent, 15 March 2004.
22 Gambill, “The Kurdish Reawakening in Syria;” Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 49–50.
23 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 49.
24 Raja Abdulrahim, “‘Assad or We Burn the Country’: How the Syrian Regime Prevailed,” The Wall Street Journal, 6 March 2019.
25 Author’s interview with SDF commander Polat Can, 22 March 2019.
26 Wilgenburg, “Dissecting the YPG.”
27 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 58.
28 Ibid., 58, 91
29 Wilgenburg, “Dissecting the YPG”; Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 59.
30 Michael Knights and Wladimir van Wilgenburg, Accidental Allies. The U.S.-Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State (London: I.B.Tauris, 2021), 41.
31 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 58.
32 Al Monitor, “Syria’s Kurds Formally Join Opposition Coalition,” 2013, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/08/syria-kurds-join-national-coalition.html
33 Anadolu News Agency, “FM: Turkey to Boycott Syria Talks if PYD Invited”, 26 January 2016, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/fm-turkey-to-boycott-syria-talks-if-pyd-invited/510882.
34 Kurdish National Council and People’s Council of West Kurdistan Conclude Additional Agreement, 28 July 2012, https://web.archive.org/web/20160705145051/ https://kurdwatch.org/index.php?aid=2594&z=en&cure=245.
35 Ghadi Sary, “Kurdish Self-Governance in Syria: Survival and Ambition,” Chatham House, September 2016, https://syria.chathamhouse.org/assets/documents/2016-09-15-kurdish-self-governance-syria-sary.pdf, 10; Rudaw, “President Barzani Slams PYD in Syria, Rejects Autonomy Declaration,” 15 November 2013, http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/14112013
36 Ibid.
37 Isabel Coles, “Syrian Kurds Sign Power-Sharing Deal to Draw More Support,” Reuters, 23 October 2014.
38 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 72.
39 Hisham Arafat, “Syrian Kurds Appeal to Resolve Rojava’s Political Disputes,” Kurdistan 24, 16 January 2017, https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/bda8de88-2da5-4548-8c48-3cd9895fdee3
40 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 56.
41 Rena Netjes and Erwin van Veen, Henchman, Rebel, Democrat, Terrorist: The YPG/PYD during the Syrian Conflict (The Hague: The Clingendael Institute, 2021).
42 See Preamble, Charter of the Social Contract (2014), https://www.peaceinkurdistancampaign.com/charter-of-the-social-contract/
43 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 75–6.
44 International Crisis Group, “Squaring the Circle in Syria’s North East.” Middle East Report No. 204 (Brussels: International Crisis Group, 2019), 6.
45 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 78–82.
46 BBC, “Guide to the Syrian rebels,” 13 December 2013, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003
47 Netjes and van Veen, Henchman, Rebel, Democrat, Terrorist, 64.
48 See The Free Syrian Army’s Proclamation of Principles. https://fsaplatform.org/fsa-principles). [Accessed on 27 May 2021]. Also van Wilgenburg, “Dissecting the YPG.”
49 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 70.
50 Wilgenburg, “Dissecting the YPG.”
51 MEE, “Syrian Kurds Plan Enclave Stretching to Mediterranean: Report,” Middle East Eye, 24 May 2017, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syrian-kurds-plan-enclave-stretching-mediterranean-report
52 Bedir Mulla Rashid, “Military and Security Structures of the Autonomous Administration in Syria,” Omran for Strategic Studies, (2018), http://omranstudies.org/publications/reports/military-and-security-structures-of-the-autonomous-administration-in-syria.html, 12–13.
53 Lemmon, The Daughters of Kobani. 36.
54 Wladimir van Wilgenburg, “Syrian Kurdish Militia Takes over Oil Fields,” Al Monitor, 7 March 2013, https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/power-vacuum-oil-fields-syria-kurdish-militia-pyd.html.
55 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 126.
56 Dor Shilton, “In the Heart of Syria’s Darkness, a Democratic, Egalitarian and Feminist Society Emerges,” Haaretz, 9 June 2019.
57 Debbie Bookchin, “How My Father’s Ideas Helped the Kurds Create a New Democracy,” The New York Review of Books, 15 June 2018.
58 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 67, 121; Amy Austin Holmes and Wladimir van Wilgenburg, “Kurds and Arabs in Northeast Syria: Power Struggle or Power Sharing?” The National Interest, 11 August 2019.
59 Civiroglu and van Wilgenburg, “Kurdish-Arab Rebel Alliance May be Key to Obama’s Syrian Strategy;” Danny Romero, “ISIS, a Year of the Caliphate: Nine Battles That Made the Group What It Is,” The Independent, 27 June 2015.
60 Firat News Agency, “YPG and FSA Set Up ‘Joint Action Centre’,” 11 September 2014, https://anfenglishmobile.com/news/ypg-and-fsa-set-up-joint-action-centre-9159
61 Pamela Quanrud, “The 74-Member International Coalition Illustrates American Leadership in Action,” American Foreign Service Association, January/February 2018, https://www.afsa.org/global-coalition-defeat-isis-success-story
62 Ibid., 188.
63 John Walcott, “Trump Ends CIA Arms Support for Anti-Assad Syria Rebels: U.S. Officials,” Reuters, 19 July 2017.
64 State Department, “Situation in Amuda, Syria,” 1 July 2013, https://20092017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/07/211430.htm
65 Knights and van Wilgenburg, Accidental Allies.
66 Meysa Abdo, “A Town Shouldn’t Fight the Islamic State Alone,” New York Times, 28 October 2014.
67 Hisham Arafat, “Syrian Kurds Celebrate Kobani Liberation Day,” Kurdistan 24, 28 January 2016, http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/443e9503-2f88-4fee-a93e-7f4b6b9c3344/Syrian-Kurds-celebrate-Kobani-Liberation-Day
68 Constanze Letsch, “US Drops Weapons and Ammunition to Help Kurdish Fighters in Kobani,” The Guardian, 20 October 2014.
69 Al Jazeera, “Turkey to Let Iraqi Kurds Join Kobane Battle,” 21 October 2014, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/10/turkey-allow-kurds-join-fight-against-isil-2014102093610603527.html
70 BBC, “Battle for Kobane: Key Events,” 25 June 2015, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29688108; Robin Wright, "How Trump Betrayed the General Who Defeated ISIS", The New Yorker, 4 April 2019.
71 State Department, “Department Press Briefing,” State Department website, 8 March 2017, https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2017/03/268295.htm; Lemmon, The Daughters of Kobani, 55–9.
72 Cale Salih, “Is Tal Abyad a Turning Point for Syria’s Kurds?” BBC, 16 June 2015, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33146515.
73 Suleiman Al-Khalidi and Tom Perry, “New Syrian Rebel Alliance Formed, Says Weapons on the Way,” 12 October 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-kurds/new-syrian-rebel-alliance-formed-says-weapons-on-the-way-idUSKCN0S60BD20151012.
74 Middle East Eye, “UK Resumes ‘Non-Lethal Aid’ to Syrian Rebels,” 12 February 2015,
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-resumes-non-lethal-aid-syrian-rebels.
75 Holmes Lybrand and Tara Subramaniam, “Fact Check: Trump Says the US Has Given ‘Massive’ Assistance to the Kurds. What Do the Facts Say?,” CNN, 8 October 2019, https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/08/politics/donald-trump-kurd-military-aid-syria-fact-check/index.html.
76 KUNA, “Erdogan: Turkey Doesn’t Want Another ‘Iraqi Kurdistan’ in Syria,” 29 October 2015, https://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2468381&Language = en
77 Colin Kahl. “The United States and Turkey Are on a Collision Course in Syria,” Foreign Policy, 12 May 2017.
78 Soylu, “Three Broken US Promises on Manbij;” Maria Abi-Habib and Margaret Coker, “U.S. Compromises Won Turkey’s Backing for Kurdish-Led Offensive,” The Wall Street Journal, 14 July 2016.
79 Deutsche Welle, “Russia-Backed Syrian Forces Enter Key City Manbij in Northern Syria,” 15 October 2019, https://www.dw.com/en/russia-backed-syrian-forces-enter-key-city-manbij-in-northern-syria/a-50847542
80 Hawar News Agency, “The Military Council of Jarablos Declared,” 22 August 2016, https://dckurd.org/2016/08/22/the-military-council-of-jarablos-declared/
81 Ed Blanche, “In Syria, a Secret War of Assassinations Rages,” The Arab Weekly, 11 September 2016,
https://thearabweekly.com/syria-secret-war-assassinations-rages; BBC, “Turkey ‘Ends’ Euphrates Shield Campaign in Syria,” 30 March 2017, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39439593.
82 Ari Khalidi, “Turkey’s Idlib Move Aimed at Kurds’ Mediterranean Ambitions,” Kurdistan 24, 8 October 2017, https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/sport/61d8ffec-1a62-4e9d-8d44-1351b6c7c8d6
83 Engin Yüksel, “Strategies of Turkish Proxy Warfare in Northern Syria,” CRU Report, November 2019, https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2019-11/strategies-turkish-proxy-warfare-in-northern-syria.pdf, 6.
84 Rodi Said, “Syrian Kurds Set to Announce Federal System in Northern Syria,” Reuters, 16 March 2016.
85 Turkish President Erdogan did not see ISIS as his country’s main threat. According to the Washington Post, in private meetings with senior U.S. officials in 2014, Erdogan said the Kurds were his top concern and that removing the Assad regime ranked second. Adam Entous, Greg Jaffe, and Missy Ryan, “Obama’s White House Worked for Months on a Plan to Seize Raqqa. Trump’s Team Took a Brief Look and Decided Not to Pull the Trigger,” The Washington Post, 2 February 2017.
86 International Crisis Group, “The Human Cost of the PKK Conflict in Turkey: The Case of Sur,” (Brussels: International Crisis Group, 17 March 2016).
87 Humeyra Pamuk, “Turkey Sets Out Raqqa Operation Plans to U.S.: Report,” Reuters, 18 February 2017.
88 Ibid.
89 Yeni Safak, “US Should Enter Raqqa through Tel Abyad: Turkish Report,” 10 February 2017, https://web.archive.org/web/20180819113401/ https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/us-should-enter-raqqa-through-tel-abyad-turkish-report-2610882; Nezaket Yalman, “A Raqqa Plan in the Making,” Middle East Observer, 22 February 2017, https://www.middleeastobserver.org/2017/02/22/a-raqqa-plan-in-the-making/.
90 Richard Sisk, “Turkey Rejects US Plan for Raqqa Offensive Involving Kurds,” Military, 27 October 2016, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/10/27/turkey-rejects-us-plan-for-raqqa-offensive-involving-kurds.html
91 Ibid.
92 Sam Fouad, “Trump’s Syria Policy is Aggressive, But Is It Effective?,” Atlantic Council, 13 April 2017, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/syriasource/trump-s-syria-policy-is-aggressive-but-is-it-effective/
93 Ellen Francis, “U.S.-Allied Syrian Groups form Civilian Council to Run Raqqa,” Reuters, 18 April 2017.
94 Hassan Hassan, “The Battle for Raqqa and the Challenges after Liberation,” CTC Sentinel 10, no. 6 (June–July 2017): 1-10; Ellen Francis, “U.S.-Allied Syrian Groups form Civilian Council to run Raqqa.
95 Hassan, “The Battle for Raqqa and the Challenges after Liberation.”
96 BBC, “Raqqa: IS ‘Capital’ Falls to US-Backed Syrian Forces,” 17 October 2017, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41646802; SDF Press, “Statement Of Syrian Democratic Forces On Occasion Of Launching Al-Jazeera Storm Campaign,” 11 September 2017, https://sdf-press.com/en/2017/09/statement-of-syrian-democratic-forces-on-occasion-of-launching-al-jazeera-storm-campaign/.
97 Rodi Said and Dominic Evans, “Exclusive: Kurdish YPG Militia Expects Conflict with Turkey in Northern Syria,” Reuters, 5 July 2017.
98 US Department of Defense, “Operation Inherent Resolve. Lead Inspector General Report to the US Congress – July 1 2017-September 30 2017,” November 2017, https://media.defense.gov/2017/Nov/03/2001837455/-1/-1/1/2017_LIG_OCO_OIR.PDF, 20.
99 Tom Perry, “U.S.-Allied Kurd Militia Says Struck Syria Base Deal with Russia,” Reuters, 20 March 2017.
100 Mert Ozkan and Ellen Francis, “Airstrikes Pound Syria’s Afrin as Turkey Launches ‘Operation Olive Branch’,” Reuters, 20 January 2018.
101 Haid Haid, “Why Did Russia Abandon Afrin?,” Middle East Eye, 12 February 2018, https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/why-did-russia-abandon-afrin
102 Ibid., 8.
103 Bulent Usta, “Turkey Takes Full Control of Syria’s Afrin: Military Source,” Reuters, 24 March 2018.
104 “Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic,” 10–28 September 2018, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/G1824615.pdf, 3.
105 Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, 9–27 September 2019, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/A_HRC_42_51_0.pdf, 5.
106 Ibid., 11.
107 BBC, “Syria conflict: Trump’s Withdrawal Plan Shocks Allies,” 20 December 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46628811.
108 US Department of Defense, “Operation Inherent Resolve,” 42.
109 Rojava Information Centre, “Beyond the Frontlines. The Building of the Democratic System in North and East Syria,” 19 December 2019, https://rojavainformationcenter.com/storage/2019/12/Beyond-the-frontlines-The-building-of-the-democratic-system-in-North-and-East-Syria-Report-Rojava-Information-Center-December-2019-V4.pdf, 21.
110 Ibid., 45.
111 Ellen Francis, “After Defeating Islamic State, Syrian Kurds Eye Political Battle,” Reuters, 12 March 2019.
112 In February 2018, the US bombed regime forces and Russian mercenaries thereby preventing them from taking oil fields from the SDF. See BBC, “Syria War: US Bombs Government Forces after Deir al-Zour Attack,” 8 February 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42986089.
113 Allsop and Wilgenburg, The Kurds of Northern Syria, 70.
114 Associated Press, “With Control of 25 Percent of Syria, Kurds Seek to Establish Self-rule,” 8 October 2017, https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/with-control-of-25-percent-of-syria-kurds-seek-self-rule-1.5456246